York 3-10 Cl 1 Listed Hcp 4yo+ £23.7k win, 1 mile Good to Firm
|Horse||Value Price||Early Price||Result||SP|
|Collateral Damage||7||16 BET||6||16|
|Spirit of Sharjah||25||14||7||14|
Purely on the numbers here, I have backed Collateral Damage at 16/1, value price 7/1. Some doubt about his favoured going (though has won from soft to gd-fm) but will likely join the other non-runners if that is an issue (three pulled out already). A series of wins end of last season, including class 2 handicaps, had him go from 70 to today’s 95 so something to do at this weight (highest winning mark 92), nevertheless the RP has him apparently showing signs of running into form last time. That was just 12 days ago, his second run this season so still potential for improvement. He won at this meeting in 2006.
Overall, I think this is could go to a less exposed runner such as Rainbow Peak or Acrostic. That said, I don’t have any strong feelings about it – my original choice would have been Dream Lodge (class and pace plusses) with Extraterrestrial as the value bet, both now non-runners. Extraterrestrial was backed this morning before his withdrawal.
The only clear pace looks to be Isabella Grey (30v/50e) – ‘sole front-runner makes all for shock result’ scenario? I think she will have faded well before the finish given previous form at sprint distances.
In other news, I have in mind to follow football next season using systems based on statistics. I’m beginning to think out my approach which puts me in mind of the upcoming World Cup. I am tempted to back germany at 14/1 Corals, Ladbrokes offering 10/1. It would be a ‘fun’ bet in that i don’t follow form in the sport but Germany did so well last time and I have fond memories of that month as I was in Germany at the time – one big party! I might check some opinions on the web and have a small amount on.
This tipping site seems optimistic about Germany’s chances, in particular stating: Germany managed to remain unbeaten in their World Cup qualifying campaign. Apart from two surprise draws against Finland the German qualifying campaign went very well and Germany will go into the World Cup carrying plenty of confidence hoping to justify their World Cup odds.
That’s enough research, I will back them on that basis. It might be a good idea to get on now before the squad is announced.
Another World Cup article here mentions Germany as having a chance.
Backed Germany but only got 12/1 which is irritating – seems Corals have shortened their price though it is still 14/1 elsewhere. No other bookies in the area though so rather than wait…. The extra 2 pts makes a difference though, it felt like value whereas 12s seems a bit on the mean side. Not to worry, just try to wake up :-)
Collateral Damage was nicely placed behind the leading group with plenty of space to make a move towards the outside. Unfortunately, when asked entering the final 2f he didn’t make any ground and came 6/10 beaten just under 5 lengths. Not a bad run but the weight appeared to hold him.
Fareer made all and held off a sustained run by Rainbow Peak with Balcarce Nov coming third.