Ascot 2-50 Cl 2 Hcp Fillies 3y+ £29.1k win, 1 mile straight course, good to firm, possible rain.

Horse Value Price Early Price Result SP
Alsace Lorraine 4 4.5 WON 6
Good Again 10 9 10 6.5
First City 14 18 2 12
Off Chance 16 6 3 6.5

I couldn’t face doing the Victoria Cup this morning – 29 runners and on the back of a disappointing couple of days at Chester. Instead, marked up the 2-50, though to no avail – it looks like a one horse race with Alsace Lorraine everyone’s favourite (i.e. the tipsters and me.) Probably no bet then though First City is marginally value at 18/1, value price 14/1.

The Scoop 6 has a £million rollover so I will have a leisurely punt using various tips, systems and modicum of actual form reading.

Elsewhere, an interesting item on the wireless this morning, a professor of statistics predicting the footy results for tomorrow’s final. Read all about it here
Managed to take my eyes off the ball, it seems. The race I didn’t bet in had a value winner, Alsace Lorraine at 6/1! Worse still, my scores had 3 of the first four home, in correct order, with just my second rated coming down the field. Was that close? Hindsight, of course, but 6/1 was a bet had I not passed the race in the grey light of dawn (?!)

The trifecta was only £229 compared to the bookies tricast at £500 – worth staying awake for! The exacta paid £106 beating the bookies’ £69.

What happened then? Simply tired from a less than successful week, in itself not a true description as I did back Mamlook at 9/1. Just overload then and the distraction of 29 runners facing me first thing.

Things to learn then:

1. Each day is new (one of the attractions of this game anyway).
2. If the early price is not value then wait for the board price.
3. Exotics are potential value anyway, so long as one horse at least is a value price. This often will let you use a strong ‘most likely winner’ on top which otherwise is not value to win alone. Look for this in such races.
4. Tote is best in big fields, outsiders and big meetings – not in ‘predictable’ races. Consider the bookies if it looks like the public will be onto the result. That includes the French betting into UK pools now!
5. Trust your figures – they are carefully compiled and do work!
6. No distracting side bets – value win singles and exotics only!

So, good in it’s own way and very encouraging so far this Flat season. This is put down as a small ‘wobble’ and reinforces my confidence in the approach.