Chester 5-05 Cl 3 Handicap 4yo+ £8.1k win 10.5f

Horse Value Price Early Price Result SP
Bugaku 11/2 4 7 7/2f
Fastnet Storm 8 7.5 9 5
Norwegian Dancer 9 7 2 8
Luc Jordan 10 4 6 5
Paquerretza 12 10 5 17/2
Credit Swap 14 20 8 14
Ben Chorley 14 8 10 13/2
Moheebb 20 33 bet 12/12 28/1
Hollow Green 27 16 3 8
Laudatory 33 10 4 14

I’ve backed on the basis of the offered price (33/1, value price 201/) but, after an amusing discussion with a knowlegeable friend, can’t see why :-)

Actually, there are a couple of factors which make him of interest. He has won on a mark of 91 and runs today off 88; has been tried at 12f and runs today back at 10.5; trainer R A Carr (Mrs) is 3w 4pl 14l in the past fortnight; he is Racing Post Rating’s joint top on 119; he would welcome the forecast rain.

Pretty much a ‘contrarian’ assessment, a confluence of factors which give one the impression there is something up though difficult to put a finger on. My friend has offered to buy me a coffee if this one wins.

Elsewhere, looked at the 3-15, a handicap for 3yos – I am not moved to bet in something so iffy. Kingdom of Munster is really a non-contender but the only horse of any ‘value’ at 50/1 early, my price 19/1.
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Seems my own contrarian thinking was matched by the horse’s – Moheebb came last, ‘in touch, ridden and weakened 2f out’.

Similarly, Kingdom of Munster 11/12 at 33/1, though even I was tempted to back him.

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