Doncaster 3-15

Horse Value Price Early Price SP Position
Kings Destiny 7 9 7f 10
Tastahill 8 14 12 9
Baila Me 9 7 10 14
Stormy Weather 10 10 10 22
Friston Forest 11 bet 33 40 4th
Salden Licht 11 14 12 5
Charm School 13 9 17/2 WON
Pevensey 14 16 25 16
Ella 14 11 8 3
Merchant of Dubai 16 20 25 6
Safari Sunup 18 25 22 18

The last race of the Flat this year and a bit tricky. Soft ground counts against the top weights and the draw is also a factor, low being favoured. Kings Destiny is the ‘most likely winner’ in my list but ‘most value’ is Friston Forest, 33/1 at Ladbrokes. Needless to say, there are things ‘wrong’ with him – the distance is short and recent runs have not been brilliant. Also, the worst draw. On the plus side, the trainer Bin Suroor is doing well and may have the horse fit and fresh after a 100 day break. Stamina will not be a problem if it turns into a slog.

Salden Licht is running over a longer distance which should be interesting though not at a price to tempt a bet (though 14/1 might be called sensible and is longer than my 11/1 estimate.)

Overall, not a bet I am totally comfortable with but that’s often the case and one has to take the plunge – that’s why it’s also known as gambling :-)

It’s Jumps from next week….
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Froston Forest was 4/23 at 40/1, beaten just over 6 lengths. The Sporting Life commented: held up mid-division, headway over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, one pace final furlong opened 40/1 touched 40/1

That’s a good result, I would say, though I took 33/1. It again illustrates the process – a combination of form reading and price. Salden Licht was 5th, another good run from him. Incidentally, a low draw was not an advantage, high predominated – I must have misread that or else the Racing Post had conflicting opinions.

No betting this coming weekend as I am otherwise engaged. If there’s anything during the week, I’ll post.

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