Newbury 4-55

Cill Rialaig 4 15/2 6 8
Rainbow Peak 8 5/2 WON 3f
Namibian Orator 9 4 4 7/2
King Charles 10 18 8 10
William Blake 10 18 7 10
Salden Licht 11 40 Bet 40/1 early 3/12 16/1
The Fifth Member 11 10 9 13/2
Dr Livingstone 14 25 2 25
Spell Caster 16 18 10 18

(Bab Al Salam 10 10 N/R)

Coral’s prices btw, Ladbrokes are not yet up.

I am going for Salden Licht again, in the hope that the going will be soft enough for him. Distance is an issue but he is dropping in class from his last race when he was an over-priced 100/1 shot. 40/1 is available at the Tote this morning which makes him worth another try.

Otherwise, I make this more open than the bookies, being out of line with them as regards favourites, quite markedly so. Overall, it’s not a brilliant race and hardly what I picture as a Class 2 event.

With that in mind, it is clearly the end of the Flat and I will start next week to look at the Jumps. It may be that I should have done so earlier this month as Cheltenham had some good racing last weekend.
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This is what I had in mind (though the win would obviously have been better :-)); beaten just 2 1/4 lengths into 3rd, at 16/1. I don’t know if the 40/1 I took in the morning would have been affected by the non-runners/Rule 4 (I think not given they were outsiders) but this was an excellent bet.

Clearly others had spotted the potential here as he opened as short as 12/1 – it’s unlikely Salden Licht will ever start at such a value price again. Nevertheless, I feel the two bets I have had on him have been pretty much typical of the value approach and anticipate more of the same. Things are coming together with this ‘project’.

The Sporting Life commented: mid-division, ridden and outpaced when switched left 2f out, rallied over 1f out, stayed on to chase leading pair inside final furlong opened 12/1 touched 16/1 £8000-£500.

Dr Livingstone was 14/1 on my book and came second at a value 25/1.

Elsewhere, I had a closer look at the jumps on offer and saw that many runners have yet to start this season, so it wouldn’t have been possible to start betting on them with any degree of certainty – one would need to know which trainers got their charges fit first time out, which stats I don’t have. Plenty of time though.

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