Secrecy 4 9/2 3 5/2f
Marching Time 6 6 4 8
Prime Exhibit 8 7 2 7
Russian Jar 10 8 11 12
Salden Licht 11 40 bet 50/1 early 7/15 100/1
Huzzah 11 14 9 11
Bolodenka 11 16 12 12
Shavansky 11 16 n/r
Prince of Dance 14 7 WON 6
These are Ladbroke’s prices, Corals’ are not yet on the Easy Odds site. We agree on both favourite and second favourite and the others are comfortably in line apart from Salden Licht. I take 40/1 to be too big and managed to get 50s at Corals just now. Obviously, this could be a mistake on my part except that it has happened before and I would prefer to kick myself for my own errors rather than following someone else and losing anyway. That’s both more stupid and much more annoying.
What’s to like about Salden Licht then? He won at Listed level in France trained by Andre Fabre. His recent loss was after a year off and on the all-weather, which I discount. The RP comments say he is well in on his old form. The negatives are the trainer’s form (0 wins from 8 runs in last fortnight, though 4 of those placed so actually not so bad) and also the trainer’s reported comment that he needs a longer distance (3 wins at 9f on soft, today’s race is 8f on good to soft.)
The ratings from Topspeed and Racing Post are not too good but otherwise I really don’t see anything that makes him 50/1. Even at 20/1 he would be value and my price is 11/1. He is a winning, lightly raced 5 year old with conditions to suit. Or am I missing something?!
Anyway, back to the original method after a scenic detour and it does indeed feel right. I see myself sticking to this for evermore, so to speak, and concentrating on a more serious attempt to hone the form reading skills which underlie the whole operation. If I win today, I will buy a new anorak to celebrate :-)
Next racing will be at Newmarket on Friday when there is also a big Jumps meeting at Cheltenham as well so time to begin looking at that code as well.
Salden Licht came 7 of 15 at 100/1. Had it won at that price I would have been miffed, having taken a mere 50/1 in the morning. The Sporting Life comment: prominent, ridden over 2f out, faded inside final furlong. It was beaten by 5 lengths, not too far in my view. I still don’t see how it could have been such a long price, one of life’s mysteries?
I will try to put the positions next to the runners in my odds line above from now on. The numbers will then be: value price, early price, position, starting price.