York 3-25

Warmingah 7/2 9
Hits Only Vic 9 16 bet 16 early 3rd 16/1
Changeingtheguard 3 9/4
Red Merlin 12 7
Precision Break 13 10
Magicalmysterytour 16 16
Manyriverstocross 20 11
Desert Sea 20 16
Deutschland 22 20
Sesenta 24 33

The only value horses here are Warmingah and Hits Only Vic. Magicalmysterytour was 25s this morning but only 16s now. Again, the paucity of value seems suspicious.

That said, those two are my most likely winners anyway so possible betting material. Hits Only Vic is the ‘longest priced value’ qualifier.
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Hits Only Vic ran well enough and I am happy with the bet. However, I took Sesenta’s price (24/1 in the morning, then 33/1 later before the off) as only marginally better than my odds and so ignored the ‘numbers’ bet – he came 1st at 25/1. Again, it might be that one has to back any contender if the offered price is bigger and not go in for notions of a ‘cut off’ point. There was only 1% diffence in the probabilities between 24/1 and 33/1 but somehow that doesn’t count in practice. What is going on, I don’t know, but from now I will go with the price regardless of the ‘true’ odds.

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