Newbury 2-55

Strathcal 3 5
Toujours Souriante 7/2 6
Zaaqya 8 6
Oasis Knight 11 8 Won 8/1
Takafu 13 14 bet 14 early 8/12 10/1 Bureaucrat 22 14
It’s a Date 22 9

50/1 bar

Funny looking race. Several have never won over this distance (1m 5 1/2f), with the 3 year olds looking good. Oasis Knight wears visor for the first time, normally a negative, but there is a note after his win last year that his succesful half-brother also needed headgear and I see that as siginficant. However, after yesterday’s short-priced loser I am wary of going for the ‘obvious’ choices here (Strathcal, Toujours Souriante) and have had a small bet on Takafu. He is a measly 14/1 at Ladbrokes which is annoying as elasewhere (i.e. not in this neck of the woods) he is 25s! There should be a law against it and so I am left with scraping some small edge. The small bet allows me to have more on at board prices, if I can be arsed. 25/1 would definitely be acceptable. He has the top ratings and a good weight compared to his previous winning mark. Distance and going are fine.

Of course, a forecast beckons but I am going cautiously for now after a month away from this approach. In fact, it is as much for the pleasure of the numbers as any attempt to get rich (though that follows naturally) and I am happy with just one or two races a day and to see the method develop. I will also being looking at doing correlation tests on the various sets of odds.
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Oasis Knight won this easily at 8/1. My comment about the visor proved more significant than I realised! Takafu looked to be going well, tracking the leader nicely until the home straight when he gradually sank back into the field. Interestingly, he was backed from 16s down to 10/1. I did have a bit more on but with the Tote.

Contrarian thinking would have paid off here and it is a reminder that just one factor may merit a high score in contrast to an accumulation of more obvious elements.

An interesting race!

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