Moheeb 13/8 4/1 bet 4/1 early 8/11 7/2f
Demolition 8/1 6/1
Jo’burg 10/1 5/1
Addikt 11/1 6/1
Bazergan 13/1 10/1
Granston 14/1 18/1
Snow Dancer 15/1 11/1
Tufton 16/1 7/1
Back on the value trail. I’m using the FV 100 version, breaking each score down into weighted parts e.g distance, going, etc. It’s a nice, orderly way to approach a race and is more of a framework than a mechanical scoring system, so it allows for ‘contrarian’ thinking which often values factors conventional punting overlooks. Of course, the proof of the pudding is in the lap of the gods, so we will have to see how it corresponds to reality.
The bookies give the first four close odds with Moheeb favourite at 4/1, in other words an open race. I put Moheeb well clear of the others, seeing things as much less competitive. This is value and, given nothing else stands out (no ‘longest priced value’ here; Granston is 14s at Ladbrokes and the difference is not enough to figure as proper value (20s maybe)) I should take it.
Moheebb came well down the field, possibly the ground had dried out though officially still ‘good’. No other value bet as such, either based on early prices or SP, though Granston at 18/1 early came closest and was just a nose 2nd at 12/1.