Hatton Flight 5 7
Young Mick 10 11
Night Crescendo 14 16
Dansili Dancer 15 14
Record Breaker 15 18
Heron Bay 15 14
Drill Sergeant 17 16
Martyr 19 20
A rather annoying start to the day – I had intended taking the 14/1 at Ladbrokes for Young Mick and arrived literally 1 minute after the shop opened to find it had already shortened to 11s. I knew that Pricewise had tipped him but all the same that is quick off the mark. The other prices today are mean as well – no value basically. The reason, I presume, is the last day at Ascot and the bookies wanting to hang on to their profits by giving punters little chance to get anything back. Commercially, it makes sense – that said, a Tote monopoly would prevent this exploitation.
On another point, just the observation that my prices are in line to a surprising degree, given the competitive nature of the race.
Yesterday, Indian Days would have been the correct play, running well into 6th place. Halicarnassus ran poorly under top weight.
Several of these have been backed, notably Heron Bay, now 11s from 20s at Ladbrokes. There is activity for a number of them so not all the ‘insiders’ can be right. It still remains a flat race oddswise and I get the impression others are trying to steal what little value is perceived on the last day at this meeting. For my part, I have simply gone for my favourite oddswise, Hatton Flight at 7/1, value price 5/1. Not much in it but just over the odds and hopefully he will continue his progressive trend.
Yesterday eneded as it started with less than optimal irritation. I normally don’t go down to the bookies in the late afternoon but thought I might just get the result of the Ascot 5-00. I was there in time but the Newmarket 4-55 was late loading up and the two races started together. In typical inept fashion, we were treated to split screen/split commentary, no one knowing what was going on until the races were both well underway. The Ascot race got the smaller of the two screens so I didn’t realise a rider had fallen off until a couple of furlongs along when horror dawned on me that it was Hatton Flight without his jockey. He had stumbled out of the stalls and lost his rider.
It was one of those ‘breathe deeply’ moments and an appropriate end to a lacklustre week.
On the plus side, the new, quicker Form Value method is good and I do expect now to profit from it. That’s after a couple of day’s break though….