Kavachi 5 8 Won 11/2f
Foolin Myself 9 18 18th 16
Angel Rock 9 12 5th 10
Medici Pearl 11 16 8th dht 14
Albaqaa 12 14 2nd 10
Red Jade 15 14 12th 11
Acrostic 17 6 4th 7
(Last Three Minutes vp 60 3rd 14)
Another difficult race to price up; like yesterday, a number with little form to go on, possible improvers and younger horses. That said, my line does corrspond broadly with the bookies – Kavachi emerging as my favourite and other contenders only a point or two out, effectively we have the same opinion. Obvious discrepancies are Acrostic and Foolin Myself. I also priced the rest but gave very low scores which give them no real chance whilst the bookies, of course, have to price everything to sellable values.
I missed Kavachi’s early 10/1 and the longest-priced value rule gives Foolin Myself as the bet.
A satisfactory assessment but I managed not to back the winner as a single, just the trifecta. The reason was missing the 10/1 online – it had shortened to 8/1 which swayed me despite being good value itself. Still, a nice race to watch and encouraging. It has fed my thinking on the need for a more rapid assessment process and I feel I might be nearer to that.
Royal Ascot this week! I recall thinking years ago that this was really the start of reliable betting, given the form has now started to settle down and most horses will have had a run. This latest result is typical of what I expect. Do back the win singles whatever other plays you make!