I don’t have my notes to hand so no odds line; the bet is Kaabari at 10/1, value price 11/2. I just missed 12s, which is a pain. The horse has run well enough in higher grades and trainer C Brittain is in good form. The only other vqalue is Sandor, which I make 5/1 and on offer at 10/1. December Draw has impressive figures last time out but his trainer is not so hot at the moment and I wonder if he can reproduce that form.
This is a 3 yr old race, so a bit speculative. Somehow, I like that though – many moons ago I picked two 33/1 winners on the same day, Cambrian and Poker Dot, both 3 year olds. It is an intersting ‘population’ to look at, given the dynamics of growth and form – one has to read between the lines and base plays on other factors such as trainer form. I will look out for more of these. That said, I am a bit disappointed about the racing at Goodwood today, mostly grade 5, but perhaps this bet will oblige.
Actually, I have just seen Pricewise Extra and Kaabari is their tip so no wonder the price shortened (suspiciously quickly though, do they tell Ladbrokes first?) Here’s there analysis, with which I can only agree :-)
Plenty to suggest 11-1 Kaabari is a value play
1pt win at 11-1 generally
There is not one single reason that makes Kaabari a value bet at a double figure price, but there are several positives that nudge me that way. First is trainer Clive Brittain’s excellent recent form. In the last five days, he’s saddled eight runners and they’ve finished 10111202.
Second, I like her quality pedigree (she’s out of a mare related to Luso and Needle Gun who has already produced a couple of fillies rated 110 by Racing Post Ratings) which not only suggest quality, but staminaas well. It looks like the 7f trip she’s exclusively raced over so far is not far enough to bring out the best in her.
A high draw is a plus – the last five winners of this race have been drawn 10 (13 ran), 8 (11), 8 (10), 10 (12) and 11 (18) – and so is the jockey, Darryll Holland who is one of the best from-the-front jockeys in the country, and won’t want to waste her plum draw.