Ascot 2-15 Victoria Cup
Fishforcompliments 8 14
Opus Maximus 8 16
Zaahid 10 12
Arabian Spirit 10 16
Evens And Odds 12 15/2
Spitfire 14 33 BET 33/1
Quest For Success 14 20
Blue Sky Basin 16 20
Majuro 16 20
Signor Peltro 18 25
Nezami 20 50
Trafalgar Bay 20 14
Giganticus 22 25
Mr Macattack 22 16
Guilded Warrior 25 40
Aeroplane 33 40

The Most Likely Winner is Fishforcompliments (8, 14) but I have missed the early price now and in any case the win single is Spitfire. That’s almost in accordance with the rule though Nezami is also a possible value price and indeed Guilded Warrior. L’Hirondelle was the subject of some optimistic trainer comments in the RP this morning, in which case 100/1 is miles too big – I don’t see him as a contender though. Spitfire appeals as likely to improve on his good first run back since September and being the subject of favourable comments in big handicaps last season. No ideas for exotics here, there are too many horses to perm. Overall, not the exciting opportunity I had hoped for :-)

Post-race:

1 (29) Swift Gift 25/1
2 (6) Nezami 50/1
3 (27) Dhaular Dhar 33/1
4 (16) Signor Peltro 28/1
5 (3) Trafalgar Bay 10/1
6 (5) Markab 25/1
7 (22) Mr Macattack 14/1

Spitfire came last, in trouble after just 3 furlongs. The ‘rule’ bet was Nezami but I was distracted in the Tote office when I saw Spitfire at 40s. I missed that price and took 33s – not straight thinking at all.

The main cardinal sin was to have made Swift Gift and a couple of placed horses non-contenders. The simple response is that it was a tricky race but that just means I don’t wish to go into a deep analysis at the moment. A basic premise is that all races are ‘do-able’ and that the odds decide where there is a ‘gamble’.

More later in the week….

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