Yesterday’s ‘wobble’ over with (Charlotte Point the only winner at 7/2), it’s back to proper punting today.

Chester 1-45
(Huzzah 9/2 8) NR
Opus Maximus 7 11
Dunn’o 8 14 BET 14/1
Flawed Genius 9 13/2
Mister Hardy 10 6
Fathsta 14 10
Kings Point 16 25
Ilie Nastase 16 12
Noble Citizen 18 8
Celtic Sultan 18 7
(Carcinetto 22 50) NR

As is well known, the draw is a factor – I haven’t fully taken it into account in my line as yet as draw goes with pace in deciding the advantage, something I like to look at after the basic form assessment, taking a step back so to speak.

With several potential front runners, I predict the pace to come from stalls 1 and 3 on the inside, with stall 13 coming across whilst also competing for the lead. Stall 17 is also a pace horse but too far out. Putting names to it:

1, 3: Celtic Sultan, Noble Citizen
13: Kings Point
17: Dunn’o

Horses/stalls likely to be stuck behind are: Elna Bright 2, Flawed Genius 4, Leandros 7, Ilie Nastasie 8, International Debut 15, Opus Maximus 16. These last two are not hold up horses, just drawn wide.

Subject to further pondering, I see Huzzah as Most Likely Winner and value at 8/1 (VP 9/2). Carcinetto is interesting at 50/1 (VP 22), the bet on the ‘longest priced value’ rule.

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Both those are non-runners – nuisance! That leaves Dunn’o as the value bet (8, 14) despite the outside draw. No tempting exotics so far, I might just leave it as a win single.

Post-race:

1 (6) Mister Hardy 7/2F
2 (16) Opus Maximus 14/1
3 (10) Fathsta 7/1
4 (13) Kings Point 25/1
5 (15) Internationaldebut 50/1
6 (17) Dunn’o 11/1

Not miles out as far as the odds line predicted, apart from Flawed Genius 5 of the first 6 places were covered:

Opus Maximus 7
Dunn’o 8
Flawed Genius 9
Mister Hardy 10
Fathsta 14
Kings Point 16

Good result but note to self, don’t get distracted by socialising – you really have to keep your mind on the racing until the result. It’s actually quite disturbing to take a break for coffee with friends, you lose the sharpness and insights which concentrated analysis brings. There is such a thing as a winning mindset, a momentum which can be trained. One consequence is in trying to work out exotic bets – I feel I came close (again) to being on to something here but stopped thinking about it too soon, so to speak. It’s like pondering an intriguing puzzle and leaving it prematurely, only to find later that you were near to the solution. In the case of racing, the ‘solution’ is serious money, today’s trifecta paying over £700.

Keep focussed – this was otherwise a good start to the Flat proper.

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