Ayr 3-25 Scottish Grand National
Nine de Sivola 9 8
Out The Black 9 14
Hello Bud 9 14
Chiaro 9 20
Tricky Trickster 11 9
Chief Dan George 12 7
Merigo 13 12
Gone to Lunch 19 14
Sound Accord 21 20
Dear Villez 23 20
Coe 27 20
At least a straight forward value choice, Chiaro at 20s has positive comments in the Racing Post about his being a ‘revelation stepped up to 3m 7f last month’ and his likely being well handicapped. I see these kinds of changes as a definite form positive and often indicative of less obvious potential, the sort that produces value since the crowd don’t read between the lines to any extent. It applies to recent form as well as changes in distance (trainer manoeuvres) and going (after a change in the weather.)
I will just note that I found something intriguing about Le Toscan, near the bottom of the handicap and with form figures or P4F00 this season. D E Pipe had a winner recently though not otherwise prolific. Don’t ask what it was that caught my eye – intuition? I had to rule him out though but only after some thought so let’s see how he runs.
Out The Black and Hello Bud are also 9s value, 14s early. Overall, I am struck again by the closeness of my odds and the bookies for several of these – they surely use similar methods.
In other news, the Flat form book arrived yesterday – apologies to the postman, it’s serious doorstop size. I’m impressed by the intelligent discussion of the draw factor for each course, looking back over the whole year. Also, each race has notes for the significant runners which I don’t recall from the last form book I saw (back when they were pocket sized.) Just waiting for Racehorse Record now and I will be looking at the Flat as the Jumps comes to an end – all good stuff.
Finally, according to the Racing Post, Venetia Williams tipped Mon Mone to the late Sir Clement Freud but he didn’t back it. Was that a Freudian slip?
Later….the Form Horses tome has arrived – I intend to become a recluse now and plan my strategy for the summer. Elsewhere, Chiaro has shortened as have my other favourites – all very encouraging….