Cheltenham 3-55
Kayf Aramis 9/2 12
Pennek 10 10
Theatrical Moment 15 7
Copsale lad 15 33
Oscatello 18 11
Gala Evening 18 12
Tisfreetdream 22 25
Galient 22 20
Snake Charmer 22 50
Sarde 22 16
25 bar

A nice lottery style race – the simple numbers bet is Snake Charmer though there is a doubt about the distance here, as with a number of others. Rain has now complicated matters. I’m somewhat against strict interpretation of the fundamentals – any horse for whom it’s possible to ‘tick every box’ is bound to be unprofitable in the long run – nevertheless, stamina is going to be a prerequisite on this course. On that basis, I would go for Copsdale Lad.

Still time to think though (started a bit later than ideal this morning but removes any frantic ‘must get the early price’ mania) so will update in a while.

Post-race:

1st (23) Made In Japan 33-1
2nd (2) Kayf Aramis 20-1
3rd (9) The Package 40-1
4th (17) Gala Evening 11-1

I went for the tricast in this rather than a win single – Kayf Aramis, Pennek and Copsdale Lad in that order. I felt Kayf Aramis would do well for Venetia Williams, of course, but there was always the possibility of a ‘random’ horse getting the result – Made in Japan was one of my longer odds (25/1, 16/1 early) though I ruled out The Package entirely. I am learning to incorporate the less obvious ones in my assessment – it’s better to leave one in than to be too quick ruling it out, certainly initially and if you are going for the value bets rather than the form selections then these have to be given a chance (even if you can’t see why :-)) Gala Evening was 18/1 value price and lost for me a while back.

At 20/1 Kayf Aramis may have been tempting as a win single but I can’t honestly say – I wasn’t at the bookies to take that price anyway. He lengthened in the on-course market whilst Copsdale Lad shortened, both moves perturbing me momentarily. There was the usual clever speculation on the lighter weighted horses due to the rain though these higher grade events are possibly not as susceptible to that tactic.

A bit of an experiment then and very interesting to see how reality measures up to one’s predictions, especially after various mental convolutions in trying to pick three from even one’s own shortlist. The CSF paid £568.22 so maybe trying for the extra horse was a bit unnecessary :-)

Another good race I feel and more to look forward to tomorrow.

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