I didn’t realise there was decent racing at Cheltenham today – out of the routine after the Bank holiday. So, one quick odds line, fill in the others later (the bookies are being a bit stingy anyway, so we are not missing much :-))

Cheltenham 2-45
Le Duc 7 5
Gidam Gidam 8 9
Never So Blue 8 11
Trigger the Light 9 6
Alexanderthegreat 9 9
Tara River 10 33 BET 33/1
Gaora Lane 10 6
Seymar Lad 12 NR
Obaki de Guissay 12 9

Cheltenham 3-20
From Dawn to Dusk 5 11/2
Dave’s dream 6 4
Hernando Royal 9 5
South O’the Border 9 8
Eleazar 10 25 BET Tote (SP 18/1)
Naiad de Misselot 11 14
Seven Is My Number 13 7
Dastardly Dick 16 9

Cheltenham 3-55
Mr Boo 5/2 6
Atouchbetweenacara 6 7/2
Private Be 7 9/2
Le Burf 8 6
Fier Normand 8 7
Nikola 10 12
Oceanos des Obeaux 12 12

Tana River ran well for one circuit but then went rapidly backwards. The race was won by Boychuk at 17/2, a non-contender in my assessment which was clearly wrong. I am becoming more aware of these ‘non-obvious’ horses – the form is just that, with long layoffs, apparently poor recent form, some kind of trainer angle going on. They can pay well and are not too difficult to identify, particularly when one adopts the view of a race as simply probabilities rather than selections, what Quinn calls ‘outcome scenarios’ – it’s important to get out of the fine tuning of ‘selections’ and recognise that one is looking, not for the best horse but for the best bet.

A case in point in the 3-20: Eleazar looked to be in with a serious chance but for the horrendously long run to the second last (it seemed about 3 miles!) In the event, 3rd at 18/1 was value. I played the Tote (so no idea what I would have got – it was about 18s at the off) having missed the 25/1 early price.

I won’t bother with the 3-55 as there is no value at the early prices. Overall, one good bet at least today and I will make a note of Boychuk for future reference.

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