Excellent result yesterday – Tom’s Toybox was given a brilliant ride by Lucy Horner to win at 8/1. I had taken 12s in the morning so very pleasing. He was some way off the pace until the last when he took over to win by a head.
I took some gloss off the afternoon with an ill-considered bet on Panama At Once, trying to see the value at 5/1 (value price 7/2) and hoping for 11/2. Either way, he unseated his rider and was not going noticeably well against classier opposition. Mister Apples had caught my eye during the form reading but I neglected him due to the price. An unsatisfying play without a doubt.
I think I have learnt something though, namely that stayers are big and get into a rhythm, their weight carrying them over the fences steadily. The contrast between Panama and Mister Apples was striking in that regard.
Anyway, I resolve to make fewer poor bets and save ammo for the better ones. The key is to ask if you would feel happy with the bet regardless of the outcome – it’s fundamentally obvious that not all bets win and talk of picking the winner is nonsense when it’s done with hindsight. So, we talk only of bets and strive to make good bets, a learnable skill that nevertheless must be exercised and honed continually.
That said, today’s bet might just be off the mark entirely :-)
Saunders road 5/2 9/2
Daldini 4 4
Wot Way Chief 4 4
Brave Rebellion 5 13/2
Oneway 10 14
Prince Taime 3 2
Mister McGoldrick 7/2 14
Coq Hardi 4 9/2
Theatre Diva 6 8
I have backed Mister McGoldrick at 14s early. He has done well enough in classy races but his age is a concern. What I have overlooked is that his form is all chasing not hurdles – fairly dim of me!
In the 3-15, Oneway is left out as not true value, the others are nothing to get excited about at the early prices; Saunders Road possibly worth consideration.
Pre-race: My condidence in Mister McGoldrick is being boosted somewhat. The Racing Post’s informative Market Mover’s page shows some money for him, 16s into 10s with Chandler, now 12s from 14s with Ladbrokes.