Cold Harbour 4 5
Archimbolo 6 8
Starr Flyer 6 6
Cootehill 9 11/2
Butterfly Rose 9 6
Capitalise 10 16
Mizen Raven 2 6/4
Haar 3 5
Spring Lover 7/2 4
The first of these is interesting – many runners with form, fitness or distance doubts but with some pluses as well – pretty much a number play as the most likely winner is by no means clear. I draw the odds cutoff before Capitalise at 10s which leaves Archimbolo at 8/1 with Corals, 2 points over my own odds, as the bet. Strictly speaking 9s would have been required (50% overlay) but I am not unhappy with this as it stands. I think this course will help.
In the 3-35, Haar is value at 5/1 and hence a bet. Nothing too much to say – four runners ruled out leaving three close in the odds.
I would consider a win double on these two races but am in no hurry to start on exotics just yet.
Pre-race: Is Ladbroke’s early book on the Ludlow 3-05 132% overround? That’s 3% per runner. Bad.
Haar now 6/1 at Coral’s – irritating. If it ever reaches 7s I will have a bit more on.
Post-race: Archimbolo didn’t look keen to race and started 10 or more lengths behind the rest. He did catch up though and I was pleased with his running just behind the leaders, looking to be going well and handily placed outside for a challenge. Then he fell so we will never know if this was to have been his day. I think a good bet from what I saw, particularly in a somewhat unclear race with pluses and minuses for nearly every runner. It will be interesting to see his next appearance.
Haar also ran well, at the last the only challenger to evens favourite Mizen Raven and finishing 2nd though by several lengths. I had Mizen down as 2/1 favourite so a forecast finish so to speak (though I didn’t bet that way, just the win.)
Two good plays then.
Elsewhere, the Ayr 3-25 was amusing – it caught my eye whilst waiting for the next betting race as there were joint favourites, both at evens in a 4-runner contest. They were both some way clear of the other pair and going well when, seemingly inexplicably, they both fell at the same fence. The others sped past as the fallen jockeys seemed to commiserate with each other whilst lounging on the turf. The winner was General Stone Hll at 50/1, 2nd Bad Day Bad Day at 12s; the CSF paid £312.52.
Postscript: Not amusing at all as it turned out – I read in the RP this morning that one of the fallers, Netherley, was killed and the jockey badly shook up by the fall. Racing can go from one extreme to another in a moment….