Maktu 7/2 12
Another Brother 9 9
Heraldry 10 12
Snake Charmer 11 25
Bulwark 12 9
Badgerlaw 6 5
Gidam Gidam 10 12
Companero 11 12
Flintoff 11 14
Kilcrea Asla 11 7
I have backed both Maktu and Gidam Gidam at 12s. I suspect Badgerlaw to beat Gidam would be a sensible CSF – I want to think out a clear strategy for these multiple bets before making them but I am sure that is where the money is.
Post-race: How annoying is that?! My ‘other’ horse won – the price of 25/1 was to be had this morning. Bugger! The rule is clear – the longest priced which is value. It happens time and again so I may eventually learn :-) Anyway, a break will be good and I am still on track. There’s always Gidam again in the 3-10….
Reminder to self: once you have carefully read the form, the prices and hence the bets take care of themselves. The form reading is the skillful part – attend to that. Then, the bets are practically automatic and rules-based. Why else study the form if you then try and double guess what it tells you?
So, write out strict rules for the bets and follow them – it’s not difficult! And those long-priced wins do, indeed, happen. There’s no magic involved. The explanation is simply that the odds line is only an estimate – mine or anyone else’s. It puts you onto horses with a good chance and, by backing the longest priced of those, you will get winners in their turn at big prices. The value requirement means the price will likely be over the odds so it will appear to be impressive but that’s largely an artifact of the selection process – one doesn’t look for outsiders to start with.
As far as the ‘6/1 or less’ rule goes, that is going to vary with the field size. Whatever you decide as your maximum value price, follow the ‘longest-priced which is value’ rule. The maximum odds will likely be clear if there is a standout though a table could be set up to follow.
So, strict rules for bets now – once the form has been read and the line made, forget the form and bet by the numbers!
To end the week, Gidam Gidam ran well – some consolation, a good bet even. Now a couple of days to clear my head :-)