Witchita Lineman 6 13/2
Lacdoudal 10 33
Star de Mohaison 11 10
Nenuphar Collonges 14 16
Maljimar 14 16
Lothian Falcon 16 16
Millenium Royal 16 11
Fundamentalist 20 15/2
Oedipe 20 33
Wind Instrument 20 33
The Sawyer 22 40
Bet Lacdoudal 33/1 early at Ladbrokes.
The only reason to bet is to make money, so possibly a couple of opportunities passed over yesterday; smaller fields and class 3, just about right. Unlike today’s mega-fields at Cheltenham – good quality, the best, of course, but still, bettingwise, a lot of work and potentially headspinning.
I kept calm though :-), only one race looked at and I feel good about the resulting odds line (relative to the mental turmoil I sometimes go through to produce it, especially so early in the morning). Only the horses up to a value price of 14/1 are of interest personally but I list the others initalics for information.
My favourite is Witchita Lineman but no value at the early prices – definitely Most Likely Winner though; good recent form, rated top by both Topspeed and Postmark, though I have marked him down somewhat for lack of handicap form.
Lacdoudal will be suited by the conditions and well weighted though his most recent run was poor and he hasn’t won for a couple of seasons. The price compensates though, in my book at least.
Again, a good correspondence between my prices and the bookies, strikingly so in several cases to the extent that I wonder if I am doing something right. Perhaps they will offer me a job? It could save them money in the longer term :-)
Post-race: Well, perhaps I worked too hard to make a case for Lacdoudal, he came 6/21 and never got in a challenge. The result looks better than the run did.
Otherwise, Star de Mohaison was a late non-runner. I had him to come 2nd after Lacdoudal, with Nenuphar Collonges 3rd, in a small tricast (motivated by greed but in a good way :-)) No luck, this time but….
….looking at that a moment, something very interesting seems to have occured. Here’s my contenders’ odds line without the non-runner or Lacdoudal:
Witchita Lineman 6
Nenuphar Collonges 14
and the result:
1st. Witchita Lineman 5/1
2nd. Maljimar 14/1
3rd. Nenuphar Collonges 15/2
Spot the difference? The tricast paid £603.00, on which basis I am looking forward to tomorrow….