I’m starting the betting week a day early – there are a couple of reasonable races and I am impatient to get rich :-) Value prices and currently available early prices as follows:
Ultimate Limit 6/4 10/11
Never So Blue 5 8 Bet 8E
Ballyvoge 6 10
Huckleberry 6 16
Darvina’s Boy 7 14
Here, I’m not sticking to the rule about the longest priced being the bet – I think the drying ground might be significant and soft ground perhaps accounted for the recent less-than-optimal running. In addition, Never So Blue has the highest Topspeed rating of the field, another plus. My ‘other’ horse is Huckleberry, the ‘rules’ bet at 16s. If Huckleberry does win, I will be miffed to put it mildly :-) Ultimate Limit is heavily touted in the papers and has obvious claims with a light weight – not at this price though.
Lyes Green 4 9 Bet 9E
Apatura Dik 4 8
New Perk 5 13/2
Apatura Dik has a high Topspeed figure in this field but I am going with the higher class of Lyes Green, which is the ‘rules’ bet anyway.
Im The Decider 7/2 6/4
Caipiroska 4 7/2
Dan Buoy 11/2 16 Bet 16E
Snake Charmer 6 7
Dom d’Orgeral 6 7
Dan Buoy is a standout value price and no qualms about this bet.
In other news, I have modified the scoring system. I have used Mark Coton’s scores for a long while but have never felt confident about the trainer/jockey factor – it seems a potentially profitable angle but one requiring research and statistics. The Racing Post does have much more extensive stats for this nowadays but even so I don’t want to mess around too much with it, for now at least. I have missed the occasional winner due to down-rating it on the trainer’s score – the new scoring includes that angle but as a much lower percentage of the total. Trainers’ form will still count then but not sway the final total so much should I get things wrong.
The new scoring is out of 100 rather than the original 150, though I multiply by 1.5 since I can more readily calculate the odds from that familiar base.
I tried this out yesterday and today for real – it works nicely with a satisfying spread of marks and hence value prices. Let’s see now to what extent it corresponds to reality….
Pre-race update: Huckleberry now 12s from 16s – slightly worrying :-(
On the other hand, Lyes Green 8s from 9s – somewhat reassuring :-)
Post-race: Never So Blue won nicely at 9/1. My fears about Huckleberry were unfounded though I had a slight wobble before the off and made a ‘saver’ CSF in case they came 1-2 the wrong way round. Completely illogical and not thought through but never mind. The finish saw Never holding off challenges from the favourite and Durante so a good performance – not to say good form reading :-) I make a note of the jockey….
Not so good was Lyes Green who never really got into it – I did think my ‘other’ horse Apaptura Dik might win after making almost all – ‘almost’ being the operative word as Russian Trigger and Emroblin caught him. He did run easily throughout this marathon though and a pity to lose after that.
Dan Buoy got reminders early on and faded all too soon – a poor run. The favourite won and Snake Charmer ran well.