I have got a bit behind with things today, hence a late and short post. My prices:
Noir Et Vert 4
Kalmo Bay 5
Mr Preacher Man 6
South Bronx 7
Our Jasper 7
Brave Rebellion 7
Most Likely Winner (MLW) is Noir Et Vert, I will look for the board prices later. South Bronx currently 11s at Coral’s.
The Ring 3
Obaki de Guissay 3.5
Le Beau Bai 6
Keenan’s Future 7
MLW is The Ring and I will back him if the early 5.5 is still avalable. Le Beau Bai currently 10s at Coral’s.
Pre race update: Took 11/2 about The Ring which is good. Vert Et Noir even shorter at Ladbrokes, 11/4, so no bet there as yet. South Bronx is beginning to look interesting at 12s – I will hang on to see if I can get 14s for a bet.
Post races: Musselburgh. Backed South Bronx at 14s but should have waited as 20s eventually became available. Had something on the Tote to compensate. He ran reasonably then faded. Noir Et Vert came 3rd and was no way value at 2/1 fav (VP 4). I was perturbed to have bet quickly as Kalmo Bay was 9/1 (VP 5) and would have been a more attractive play than South Bronx though still a loser (ran poorly throughout).
Warwick. Took the 11/2 early price then another bet at 8s as the market price drifted. Also, a CSF with him to beat Le Beau Bai (10s). The Ring ran well enough but tired to come 5th. Le Beau Bai won at 10s.
This set me to thinking (as it does); earlier a friend asked why not back two horses in a race? I said that each way bets mount up and are not as safe as they look. However, it occurs to me that backing two value horses to win might be the way. An element of hindsight is obvious here – Le Beau Bai was value (VP 6) and won at 10s. Would it have been correct to back both? What about a ‘rule’ for future races? It just seems better than EW (with it’s fractional odds the place) and the additional bet is surely covered by the value prices.
Need to think on this and check recent records….