Started a day earlier this week, there being a couple of better grade races on. Form Value prices of interest:
Kandjar d’Allier 5
King Harald 5
Spring Lover 6
Cool Roxy 11
Nortonthorpe Lad 2
Working Title 5/2
King’s Revenge 5
Quasar d’Oudairies 8
I might take a punt on the outsiders in both these.
Pre-race update: Donc 3-20. I have backed Cool Roxy at 25/1 (Coral’s). It’s 16s at Ladbrokes and I make it 11s. It has equal top-rated Topspeed with King Harald. I am tempted to do the CSF as well, King Harald to come second of the pair.
Ludl 3-35. Quasar d’Allier as short as 6s at both C and L’s, so no bet there (FV 8/1). The paper’s forecast was out, having got my interest. Nortonthorpe Lad 4s at the moment which is value (FV odds 2/1); Working Title 5/2 (FV same) and King’s Revenge 8s at C and Ls, 10s elsewhere – a possible bet if I can get 10s when the board prices go up.
It’s often difficult to make a decision as one’s own prices are not set in stone and a point either way can blur the issue. I am happy with the Donc 3-20 race but undecided (and indecisive) about Ludl 3-35. It will be Nortonthorpe or King’s though, if anything.
PM: The Racing post mentioned that Cool Roxy ran above himself. He did go well for a while but too many front runners meant a fast pace and the race went to the waiting horses.
King’s Revenge also seemed to be ok for a while but I didn’t like the way his head drooped and he was somewhat floppy going over the fences. Tipped by both Daily mail and Topspeed though and some money on the course. My ‘other’ horse Nortonthorpe Lad won. There is an issue here about backing the longer priced when there are shorter priced who are also value. Both can occur in a race, of course, so generally it is a matter of choice and preference. I don’t necessarily need the comfort of a higher strike rate but the more ready money could then be reinvested.
Overall, no regrets about these plays – there were factors in favour of both and the prices took the risk into account well enough.