A couple of bets yesterday.  Neither played much part in the finish but they were good bets anyway.  Moncadou was described as running well for a fair way and worth keeping an eye on.  Stolen Moments also kept up for most of the way and perhaps will be fitter next time.  At 20s and 10s, these were good plays.  I had noticed the winner Victory Gunner but crossed him out – another instance of the longer price winner which is actually noticeable in advance.  I believe I have pinned down the elements which are typical and will look out for others – they occur often enough, Montevideo being another one a month ago at 20s.  In the event, 11s was not likely to atract me given Stolen Moments similar price but much higher VP.  No details but suffice to say recent form has to be good but in a non-obvious way.

Today, just the one:    Bowleaze VP 6/4 EP 6/1.  Others are Appleaday VP6 and Super Keano VP 7.  The EPs are too short for both these, McCoy’s horse a short-priced favourite.  I like when that happens – it means attention has been distracted from the true value, though today I don’t want to risk missing the early price.

Appleaday has a standout TS figure on it’s latest run (just beaten by The Sawyer, my 10/1 winner) but price determines the bet.  Super Keano’s rider will be popular and the horse is progressing, perhaps due to a change in distance on it’s last run.  I stick with the class idea though, which puts Bowleaze ahead of both those.

Update:  Bowleaze a non-runner, so need to reprice the rest.  The only likely bet will be Appleday as Betfair has Super Keano slight odds on.

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