I still haven’t got into FV for the start of the Jumps. In the meantime, other methods are giving the occasional bet:

/

Doncaster 3-15

The last race of the Flat this year and a bit tricky. Soft ground counts against the top weights and the draw is also a factor, low being favoured. Kings Destiny is the ‘most likely winner’ in my list but ‘most value’ is Friston Forest, 33/1 at Ladbrokes. Needless to say, there are things ‘wrong’ with him – the distance is short and recent runs have not been brilliant. Also, the worst draw. On the plus side, the trainer Bin Suroor is doing well and may have the horse fit and fresh after a 100 day break. Stamina will not be a problem if it turns into a slog.

Salden Licht is running over a longer distance which should be interesting though not at a price to tempt a bet (though 14/1 might be called sensible and is longer than my 11/1 estimate.)

Overall, not a bet I am totally comfortable with but that’s often the case and one has to take the plunge – that’s why it’s also known as gambling :-)

It’s Jumps from next week….
————————————————
Froston Forest was 4/23 at 40/1, beaten just over 6 lengths. The Sporting Life commented: held up mid-division, headway over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, one pace final furlong opened 40/1 touched 40/1

That’s a good result, I would say, though I took 33/1. It again illustrates the process – a combination of form reading and price. Salden Licht was 5th, another good run from him. Incidentally, a low draw was not an advantage, high predominated – I must have misread that or else the Racing Post had conflicting opinions.

No betting this coming weekend as I am otherwise engaged. If there’s anything during the week, I’ll post.

Newmarket 2-05

Very much a speculative bet here, Miyasaki at 66/1, my price being 16/1. I was tempted to rule him out even after making my book but he has a couple of things in his favour namely winning form at the distance and came 2nd in a Group 3 in July. His trainer is unknown to me but foreign is usually good for value if only because he is unknown to everyone else and avoided like the plague. I’m happy to take a chance here, with the field cutting up probably due to the going and a possibly muddling race as a result. Pricewise’s tip Fanunalter is one of the NRs which will further confuse things.

Without Miyasaki, the bet would be Marvo at 33/1, value price 9/1. Ladbrokes are a more cautious 20/1. An interesting little race at the end of the Flat season.

Hope the new html table makes things clearer :-)
——————————————————
Trainer Rune Haugen’s website: http://horsetrainingscience.blogspot.com/…/rune-haugen-using-science-to-train.html Won’t connect just at the moment but looks worth a check later.
——————————————————
Sporting Life comment: pressed leader over 5f, weakened over 1f out opened 100/1 touched 100/1

Beaten a long way. It will be interesting to see where he runs next; I would expect over longer distance.

Newbury 4-55

Cill Rialaig 4 15/2 6 8
Rainbow Peak 8 5/2 WON 3f
Namibian Orator 9 4 4 7/2
King Charles 10 18 8 10
William Blake 10 18 7 10
Salden Licht 11 40 Bet 40/1 early 3/12 16/1
The Fifth Member 11 10 9 13/2
Dr Livingstone 14 25 2 25
Spell Caster 16 18 10 18

(Bab Al Salam 10 10 N/R)

Coral’s prices btw, Ladbrokes are not yet up.

I am going for Salden Licht again, in the hope that the going will be soft enough for him. Distance is an issue but he is dropping in class from his last race when he was an over-priced 100/1 shot. 40/1 is available at the Tote this morning which makes him worth another try.

Otherwise, I make this more open than the bookies, being out of line with them as regards favourites, quite markedly so. Overall, it’s not a brilliant race and hardly what I picture as a Class 2 event.

With that in mind, it is clearly the end of the Flat and I will start next week to look at the Jumps. It may be that I should have done so earlier this month as Cheltenham had some good racing last weekend.
——————————————-
This is what I had in mind (though the win would obviously have been better :-)); beaten just 2 1/4 lengths into 3rd, at 16/1. I don’t know if the 40/1 I took in the morning would have been affected by the non-runners/Rule 4 (I think not given they were outsiders) but this was an excellent bet.

Clearly others had spotted the potential here as he opened as short as 12/1 – it’s unlikely Salden Licht will ever start at such a value price again. Nevertheless, I feel the two bets I have had on him have been pretty much typical of the value approach and anticipate more of the same. Things are coming together with this ‘project’.

The Sporting Life commented: mid-division, ridden and outpaced when switched left 2f out, rallied over 1f out, stayed on to chase leading pair inside final furlong opened 12/1 touched 16/1 £8000-£500.

Dr Livingstone was 14/1 on my book and came second at a value 25/1.

Elsewhere, I had a closer look at the jumps on offer and saw that many runners have yet to start this season, so it wouldn’t have been possible to start betting on them with any degree of certainty – one would need to know which trainers got their charges fit first time out, which stats I don’t have. Plenty of time though.

Newmarket 3-40

Alanbrooke 7 16 16 12
Yes Mr President 8 20 31 16
Darley Sun 10 7 WON 9/2f
Aaim To Prosper 14 50 bet 50/1 early bpg 7/32 33/1
Swingkeel 15 12 24 14
Nanton 18 25 9 28
Royal Rational 18 16 17 16
Sweetheart 18 18 12 18
Electrolyser 20 18 22 16
Mamlook 20 16 2 14
Ajaan 22 28 5 20
Judgethemoment 22 40 11 33
Wells Lyrical 22 18 19 20
Sereth 25 16 3 16
Raslan 25 50 27 40
Fair Along 30 14 25 12

34 runners so an early start and still didn’t make the bookies for opening time! My initial bet was to have been Callisto Moon, 14/1 on my book and 66/1 at Corals – in the event a non-runner. The bookie told me they had had a profit warning about him as well, it certainly was a big price in my reckoning.

So, Aaim To Prosper is next in line. I don’t normally ‘do’ first time blinkers but will take a chance here given he has had a couple of decent runs recently and also a change of stable. He missed last season but has done well in this. I get the impression that the break and the changes somewhat hide the potential and like this kind of ‘positive uncertainty’.
———————————–
Aaim To Prosper came 7/32 at 33/1. SL comments: soon tracking leaders, led over 4f out, headed over 2f out, soon one pace opened 50/1 touched 50/1. Beaten 12+ lengths, nevertheless not a bad result in such a competitive race and I am pleased with the bet which also beat SP nicely.

The winner was the heavily touted favourite Darley Sun, a 3yr old which bucks the age trends for this race. He was no way a bet at 9/2 though despite being 12lbs ‘well in’. Barney Curley’s Sereth was a respectable 3rd at 16/1, the bookies taking no chances on a possible betting coup from this notorious stable.

Newmarket 5-30

Merchant of Dubai 3 9/2
Meethaaq 6 7
Hevelius 13/2 6
Final Victory 13/2 9
Camps Bay 7 12 (11 Corals, best odds guarantee) bet 11/1 early, 4/11 14/1

Funny race – several with doubts over fitness and distance, RP notes that 3 yr olds have taken 7 of 10 previous runs. My clear favourite is Merchant of Dubai who is a lightly raced and progressive 4 yr old. Corals go 9/2 here, Ladbrokes just 10/3. My prices are pretty much in line though with both Camps Bay and Final Victory value, else not a particularly tempting race and probably better fare on offer tomorrow.

That said, I will likely back Camps Bay, whose trainer A J Perrett has won this twice in the last 6 runs and who is Topspeed top rated – with any luck he will have been aimed at this and his latest poor run can be ignored. Some rain would suit him too.

Incidentally, I have ruled out William Blake as one that promises but doesn’t deliver, so will be watching to see what he does here. Overall, he seemed a decent horse and I have backed him in the past.
———————————–
William Blake has shortened from 12/1 to 9/1. Interesting. There seems little money for any of the others with 2 hrs still to the off.

I used to think, very naively, that casinos were classy, horses somewhat less so and the dogs definitely down market. Now I have found the true depths of gambling depravity:

Political betting

Put a bucket under your computer to catch the sleeze….

Salisbury 4-20

Secrecy 4 9/2 3 5/2f
Marching Time 6 6 4 8
Prime Exhibit 8 7 2 7
Russian Jar 10 8 11 12
Salden Licht 11 40 bet 50/1 early 7/15 100/1
Huzzah 11 14 9 11
Bolodenka 11 16 12 12
Shavansky 11 16 n/r
Prince of Dance 14 7 WON 6

These are Ladbroke’s prices, Corals’ are not yet on the Easy Odds site. We agree on both favourite and second favourite and the others are comfortably in line apart from Salden Licht. I take 40/1 to be too big and managed to get 50s at Corals just now. Obviously, this could be a mistake on my part except that it has happened before and I would prefer to kick myself for my own errors rather than following someone else and losing anyway. That’s both more stupid and much more annoying.

What’s to like about Salden Licht then? He won at Listed level in France trained by Andre Fabre. His recent loss was after a year off and on the all-weather, which I discount. The RP comments say he is well in on his old form. The negatives are the trainer’s form (0 wins from 8 runs in last fortnight, though 4 of those placed so actually not so bad) and also the trainer’s reported comment that he needs a longer distance (3 wins at 9f on soft, today’s race is 8f on good to soft.)

The ratings from Topspeed and Racing Post are not too good but otherwise I really don’t see anything that makes him 50/1. Even at 20/1 he would be value and my price is 11/1. He is a winning, lightly raced 5 year old with conditions to suit. Or am I missing something?!

Anyway, back to the original method after a scenic detour and it does indeed feel right. I see myself sticking to this for evermore, so to speak, and concentrating on a more serious attempt to hone the form reading skills which underlie the whole operation. If I win today, I will buy a new anorak to celebrate :-)
————————————-
Next racing will be at Newmarket on Friday when there is also a big Jumps meeting at Cheltenham as well so time to begin looking at that code as well.
————————————-
Salden Licht came 7 of 15 at 100/1. Had it won at that price I would have been miffed, having taken a mere 50/1 in the morning. The Sporting Life comment: prominent, ridden over 2f out, faded inside final furlong. It was beaten by 5 lengths, not too far in my view. I still don’t see how it could have been such a long price, one of life’s mysteries?

I will try to put the positions next to the runners in my odds line above from now on. The numbers will then be: value price, early price, position, starting price.

Yesterday was poor – I was trying a revised ‘formula’ but it didn’t feel right and the result reflected that. It’s crucial that one’s method reflect the mental ‘map’ of how racing works.

Two characteristics are particularly clear: form is both dynamic and integrated. ‘Dynamic’ means it changes. That may be gradual or sudden but it is constant and one has to allow for it in reading the ’static’ record. ‘Integrated’ means everything relates to everything else. For example, recent form has to be seen in the context of the class it took place in. Class, however, is an aspect of what one might call overall form. So, it ties in with ratings, both official and private. The recorded form is also subject to the conditions such as going. Is one right to expect an improved run when the ground changes? Is was that result too far in the past to count? There are many permutations of these factors. The best method will take all the significant ones into account as a whole, not separately, and this mirrors one’s mental image of the problem to be analysed.

On that basis, I have finally settled on the original Form Value approach. This has been developing for a long while (years, indeed) and always draws me back through it’s elegance. My own weighting of the factors works very nicely. Any recent ‘wobbles’ have been due to my wishing to get through the assessment quickly in order to be more productive. However, by concentrating on the big meetings and classier races (still handicaps, though), I am avoiding getting into any rut as has happened before. The races are looked in a fresh frame of mind (even before 7 am!) and with less pressure to speed things up.

In any case, my longtime method can certainly be done quickly enough without skimping. What I have realised is that form reading has to be constantly practiced, even looking at races one won’t be betting in i.e. after the event, simply for practice. It is a skill that must be first acquired piecemeal, then brought to a level where the above priciples of dynamics and integration are evident, then continually honed forever after.

Incidentally, there is, unusually, a Class 2 handicap tomorrow at Salisbury where I will apply this thinking.

Now that’s definitively settled (?!) I look forward to the end of the Flat and the impending Jumps. It’s quite exciting, actually (anorak warning!)