September 10, 2010 at 12:23 pm (racing)
With a 20/1 winner in the past month and a handful of double-digit seconds in the same period, things are going well. However, I haven’t updated the record, simply due to time constraints and won’t likely be doing so for a while, at least not in the same format (of course, i will probably shout about winners as they occur!)
Good luck in running!
August 6, 2010 at 12:03 pm (racing)
| Date | Horse | Bet | Result | SP |
| Fri 6/8/10 | Miss Faustina | 8 e | 2/11 | 8/1 |
| Sat 7/8/10 | Moody Tunes | . | 11/17 | 40/1 |
| . | The Galloping Shoe | . | 3/10 | 22/1 |
| 8/8/10 | Addwaitya | 9e | 4/10 | 15/2 |
| 9/8/10 | Caladonia Princess | . | WON | 13/2 |
| 10/8/10 | Sierra Alpha | 3/1e | 4/7 | 7/4f |
| Wed 11/8/10 | Snowed Under | 16e | . | . |
August 6, 2010 at 11:59 am (racing)
Quite a while since a post here, due to various distractions and other priorities. Back on track though and I will be updating my bets and results now. I intend less comment or analysis though, simply because of time – having settled on ‘what works’, these posts are mainly as a record for my own benefit as well as providing some structure to my betting. there are a few days missing from this month’s record but not too late to start so the next post will be the monthly account.
June 5, 2010 at 10:47 am (racing)
Tags: Epsom
Epsom 4-45 Cl 2 Hcp 4yo+ £12.5k win 12f Gd-Fm
| Horse | Value Price | Early Price | Result | SP |
| Seeking The Buck | 12 | 5 | 7 | 13/2 |
| Coin of the Realm | 15 | 7/2 | 4 | 11/4f |
| King Olav | 16 | 16 | 12 | 12 |
| Cill Rialaig | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| Aurorian | 18 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| Dubai Crest | 18 | 12 | 6 | 8 |
The most value is Reve de Nuit, though I fear he could turn out to be my bete noir if I try him again. My price 22/1, Corals go 50/1. Otherwise, looks an open race and for largely negative reason – distance, recent form, weight, fitness. Coin of the Realm is surely too short even with clear top form?
Bet Reve de Nuit 50/1 early price. 5/14 33/1
June 1, 2010 at 9:51 am (racing)
Tags: Redcar, Zetland Gold Cup
Just a brief update. None of the Saturday selections did particularly well though, as noted, I didn’t back them. That was a bit of a break from the FV, which resumed Monday at redcar, the Zetland Zold Cup off at 4-10.
No internet access, it being a bank holiday – suffice to say that my value selection, Reve de Nuit, came 7/11 at 33/1 and my first four rated filled the first four places, though not in the same order and not at interesting prices, except my 4th placed, Fujin Dancer. I had him as 10/1 and could have taken 20/1 in the morning as the alternative value bet. SP was 16/1.
I will concentrate on FV solely now – it has always been the ideal framework allowing for contrarian as well as conventional form reading and coming up with numbers one can go on. Saturday’s result was an illustartion of it’s worth. The only drawback is that, I suspect, the market is now so sophisticated that value will be hard to get – this can be checked by comparing sp with early prices and so on. I feel (it’s pretty much a feeling from compiling my own prices) that the ‘hive mind’ of the exchanges (and the betting ‘bots’) is nibbling away at the value.
Imagination or fact? I did say I thought this would happen back in the early 90s as the internet and databases took off.
May 29, 2010 at 12:22 pm (racing)
No bets today, time and other distractions. I have been looking at a new angle though and came up with these selections:
Newm 2-45 One Good Emperor 9/1e 5/11 17/2
Newm 5-40 Hawridge King 6/1e 4/9 8/1
Hayd 4-45 Bollin Felix 7/1e 8/12 11/2
I will just see how they run – although tipped by various people, they are still at decent odds.
May 25, 2010 at 11:17 am (racing)
This week’s ‘system’ bets:
Mon: Flying Destination 8/10 16/1
Tue: Osteopathic Remedy bet 4/1e 5/11 9/2 (bpg)
Wed: Doctor Parkes bet 5/1e 8/11 5/1
Thu: Invisible Man 11/2e (bpg) 4/11 9/1
Fri: Brother Cha 10/1e
May 22, 2010 at 10:38 am (racing)
No win singles or FV today either, time constraints. Had a go at the Scoop 6 though, getting on for £2 million pool so worth a shot.
Elsewhere, two of my recent runners go again:
Hayd 3-30 Anglezerke 3/1E
Ches 4-35 Saga de Tercey 9/2E
and I also fancy Classic Vintage Good 2-45 7/2E. No bets on these so far, happy just to see how they run.
May 21, 2010 at 10:26 am (racing)
No Form Value bats this week, so far – busy with other things and, for some reason, don’t trust Goodwood’s undulations :-)
A ‘system’ bet everyday though (Mon to Fri):
Slip 7/11 13/2
Babycakes 2/9 5/1
Beachfire 3/11 9/1
Alhawy 4/10 8/1
Mattamia8/10 5/1
May 15, 2010 at 9:02 am (racing)
Tags: flat 2010, Newbury, Newmarket
Newbury 2-30 Cl2 Hcp £21.8, 3yo, 10f Gd-Fm
| Horse | Value Price | Early Price | Result | SP |
| Verdant | 5/2 | 9/4 | 7 | 2 |
| Monterosso | 11 | 5 | 2 | 11/2 |
25/1 bar
Newmarket 3-25 Cl2 Hcp 4yo+, £21.8, 1m 6f Gd-Fm (watering)
| Horse | Value Price | Early Price | Result | SP |
| Chiberta King | 4 | 7/2 | WON | 11/4f |
| Strathcal | 9 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| Mykingdomforahorse | 9 | 6 | 6 | 13/2 |
| Royal Diamond | 13 | 9 | 8 | 15/2 |
| Gordonsville | 13 | 11/2 | 4 | 9/2 |
| Gala Evening | 16 | 12 | 2 | 25 |
17/1 bar
An odd day – I had hoped for some good racing from the betting perspective but the class races are either 3yo only or long distance or ‘predictable’ stakes (though I haven’t bothered to look further at Paco Boy’s race.)
The Newbury 2-30 throws up two favourites in Verdant (5/2V, 9/4E) and Monterosso (11V, 5E). These are not attractive prices though Verdant gets 95% so would be an easy bet as most likely winner. Everything else in the race comes out at 25/1 or longer, a reflection of my being unable to distinguish much between them, which is also why I am scoring to a 81% book rather than 100% – wide margin of error. The bookies give a more gradual range of early prices but they have to or it would look odd – I don’t see how they can distinguish either, in reality. Of the outsiders, Aquarian Spirit is on offer at 33/1 and has Topspeeds vote otherwise could be anything.
The Newmarket 3-25 is 4yo+ but 1m 6f, a funny distance with horses either stepping up or dropping back and for no particular reason other than the lack of opportunities for stayers at this grade. Chiberta King is favourite (4V, 7/2E) but hardly tempting. Mykingdomforahorse and Strathcal are equal second rated on my book at 9/1. Mykingdom was Pricewise’s tip this morning so has shortened from 8s to 6s. Strathcal has several plusses ratingswise and of interest though a point or two more might be available later so I will wait. Still not outstanding value anywhere today it seems – I might just try the Scoop 6!
