September 28, 2009 at 12:01 pm (racing)
Tags: Ascot, Flat 2009, value betting
For Sunday, Ascot 2-05. Backed Dansili Dancer, 14 board price, came 4/11 at 14/1. Good run, stuck against the rails till final furlong but then a good challenge to Australia Day who attempted to make all. Not sustained though and Record Breaker came clear round the outside to win by several lengths. Good bet.
SL comments: held up towards rear, headway on inside going well over 3f out, switched left over 2f out, driven to challenge to chase leader and every chance over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong opened 12/1
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September 26, 2009 at 11:47 am (racing)
Tags: Ascot, Flat 2009, value betting
Ascot 3-40
Golden Desert 7 14
Marching Time 8 7
Swift Gift 9 12
Giganticus 12 20
Seek N’ Destroy 13 12
Redford 14 16
Balcarce Nov 16 28
Signor Peltro 16 25
Al Muheer 18 28
Without Prejudice 20 12
Castles In The Air 20 14
Noble Citizen 33 40 bet 40 early
Baldemar 33 25
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Noble Citizen came 22/28 at 29/1. SL comment: prominent, ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong opened 33/1 touched 33/1
Didn’t watch the race but the field finished close together, lots of nse, nk, etc so a better result than it appears.
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Some money for Balcarce Nov (28 -> 22) but little movement elsewhere. Seek N’ Destroy was one of Pricewise’s tips (12 -> 10).
The prices are from the paper so have probably changed by now. I took Noble Citizen’s 40/1. There have been a couple of similar priced winners of this in the past decade though my price of 33s is very close to that and may be marginal. Several others are value on these figures, notably Balcarce Nov (16, 28) but it is an open race and tricky to assess given progressive types. 29 runners took me over 2 hours to get through!
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September 24, 2009 at 11:23 am (racing)
Tags: Flat 2009, form value, value betting
The solution, obvious as usual, is to concentrate on the top class meetings and races, rather than simply order the Racing Post for the same days every week in the hope of a suitable race. The Form Value method works best in big, lottery-style races and there is a steady stream of them to be exploited. I will start this coming Saturday at Ascot.
The other realisation is that I have actually developed a proper, professional approach to this all. I mean, I have a good grasp of form reading (including contrarian angles) and insights into the odds-making process, plus a strong motivation to make it pay. This of neccesity makes it a lonely business as one seldom meets others on the same wavelength. So be it, let’s see what the coming weeks bring.
The year so far has been good – not moneywise but as a learning curve. I haven’t previously been so conscious of the seasonal timescale; Ascot, York, Aintree and Cheltenham have been markers in the racing year. Consistency of method is crucial; I missed Balcarce Nov and Sesenta due to chopping and changing (at 66/1 and 28/1, ouch!) so no more of that. One’s role models are in the American books by Cramer and Quinn. And Klondyke Pete, of course :-) In short, there’s gold in them thar hills, let’s go prospecting!
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September 12, 2009 at 1:35 pm (racing)
Tags: betting, Flat 2009, value betting
I’m taking another break from the Form Value. It is not fitting in with my daily routine at the moment so rather than try and bend things to fit, I think a break is in order. Moneywise, it has not been profitable but that’s actually not the reason – winners and losers take care of themselves and there have been some very good bets and assessements and I have every confidence in the method and, indeed, my skill level in applying it. In fact, today has several ideal races, just the sort of thing I look forward to when I return.
See you in a while!
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September 5, 2009 at 10:12 am (racing)
Tags: betting, Flat 2009, Haydock, racing, value betting
Haydock 2-55
Hits Only Vic 6 7
Alanbrooke 13/2 13/2
Nemo Spirit 8 12
King’s Destiny 8 5
Highland Legacy 17/2 16
Yes Mr President 9 11
Magicalmysterytour 9 12
These prices from the RP this morning so may have changed by now. Observers of Sod’s Law will note that I originally included Macorville at 11/1, early 28/1 but then ruled him out on grounds of recent and overall form. He will likely win, of course :-)
Highland Legacy will be the bet (now 14/1)
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September 3, 2009 at 1:01 pm (racing)
Tags: betting, Flat 2009, value betting
Salisbury 4-25
Silver Games 11/2 10 bet 10 early
Mo Mhuirnin 11/2 10
Turning Top 13/2 15/2
Enact 7 10/3
Tropical Paradise 8 10
Photographic 8 15/2
There’s a wealth warning with this – the going is now Good-Soft (Soft in places) which I didn’t realise when making these prices. Also, Calcinetto is a non-runner (my price being 6/1). All in all, this line needs to be taken with some caution. I backed Silver Games though, at 10/1 early.
Apart from the favourite Enact, the bookies still have this as an open race which makes me think my prices are not too far out even after the going change.
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