Oxeaxe….

Epsom 2-10
Bencoolen 7/2 9/2
Philario 4 7/2
Tartan Gigha 5 6
Plum Pudding 7 4
Royal Power 7 16 BET 16 early
Capable Guest 9 14

Epsom 3-25
Lake Poet 3 5/2
Seeking The Buck 4 7/2

I have backed Royal Power in the 2-10, mainly on value grounds though it’s fairly non-obvious. High topspeed figure and some form in this class, I noted the RP comment that the trainer, D Nicholls, targets these handicaps. In that context, the 69 day break looks significant, to a conspiracy theorist at least. My Most Likely Winner is Bencoolen.

In the 3-25, only two qualify after the defection of Sweet Lightening and I would prefer to wait for a bigger-priced opportunity. There is no obvious pace maker and the form overall is uninspiring. William Blake is an interesting Pricewise Extra choice but at 15/1 in my book, the 12s on offer is not too exciting.

Talking of conspiracies, yesterday at Sandown Ellemujie won after being backed down considerably, my bet Mujood having to take 2nd yet again. I took 5/1 and sp was 8/1. A good choice but you can’t afford to miss those extra points. That said, Ellemujie was not going to be a bet at any stage and certainly not as the price shortened.

1st Ellemujie 7-2 F
2nd Mujood 8-1
3rd Ballinteni 10-1

1st Dead Heat
Shavansky 13-2
Cosmea 3-1
3rd Kidlat 15-2

——————————

Results Fri 5 June 09
2-10
Tartan Gigha 9/2
Plum Pudding 7
Philario 3f
Royal Power 10

Royal ran well enough throughout and might even have been gaining at the close but was never close enough to the winner. Bencoolen was next to last throughout.

3-25
Seeking the Buck 9/2
Lake Poet dht 2nd 11/4
Mystery Star dht 2nd 12
William Blake 9

Sandown 7-50
Mujood 2 5
Annabelles Charm 3 3
Miss Glitters 9 6
Willow Dancer 8 15/2

Sandown 8-55
Summer Winds 3 8
Kidlat 4 15/2
La Rosa Nostra 6 6
Gallego 7 10
Basra 10 9

In the 7-50, Mujood appears again just a couple of days after his previous good run (2nd, 12/1). He has a nice weight and good ratings. The drawback is the course, a galloping, uphill finish, not his favoured Goodwood, but he does have a good draw in stall 9, just off the rail, and should take the lead as he wishes. Annabelles Charm is a danger, dropping back in distance but ratings-wise not so hot. Willow Dancer is another likely danger but fitness has to be taken on trust.

In the 8-55, there is no obvious front runner and I see a muddle with plenty of traffic probelms. Gallego has good ratings, is clear of the rail (and possibly gets a lead from Northern Spy) and has won on the course. Bottom weight, usually not a good sign on frim ground (in the mud, it’s different, of course) this may be his chance. Summer Winds the obvious value (3/1, 8/1) but maybe Gallego will have the draw/pace advantage.

Update:
Gallego was 12s in the morning, I took 10/1 and now it’s 8s, having been tipped in the Pricewise Extra column at the RP site. It’s always nice to have some confirmation that one is not totally in a parallel universe :-)

RP: ‘As a hold up horse who needs the cards to drop right, he’s no good thing, but he looks overpriced considering he’s 3lb lower than when winning a similar class race over course and distance last season, and that he showed a bit of hidden promise when rearing as the stalls opened a couple of runs ago.

Richard Price’s gelding was not disgraced when fifth at Newmarket last time out, staying on nicely towards the finish and in what looks a wide open race, 10-1 looks too big.’

The in-running pointers column has also seconded my view that there are no true front runners in that 8-55 race. I don’t consider in-running betting to be the proper way to do it though – a bit undignified, imho, with the risk of spilling one’s champers in a rush to get on :-)

And elsewhere, in the 7-50, why has no one backed Mujood?! Ellemujie is half it’s early price but nothing for mine – I suspect an impending ’sp beats early price’ trauma – it’s a hard life :-)