Oxeaxe….

Redcar 3-55 Zetland Gold Cup
Flipando 5 10 (Ladbrokes go 8s here)
Checklow 6 8 (Lad’s 7)
Military Power 7 10 BET 10 early
Unbreak My Heart 8 10
King Charles 8 8
Kingdom of Fife 9 4
Mystery Star 10 12

Pace is the issue here. There appear to be no confirmed front runners and plenty of hold-up horses, the whole thing potentially a muddle. But Military Power has taken the lead at Nad Al Sheba and appears the sole lead horse in today’s field. That’s a plus and his position in stall 5 is handy. Of the others, I like the look of Flipando’s runs in big handicaps, though today he is in stall 6 and likely to have traffic problems as so many others are held up. He won this in 2007 but is at his limit distance-wise. Checklow is lightly raced and has an in-form trainer. Given the possible ‘lone front runner makes all’ scenario, I take Military Power to do just that, with Checklow coming across to track him from stall 13 and Flipando just getting through from behind the crowd to make 3rd. I have bet accordingly.

Elsewhere, I did read through Celtic Sultan’s runs last year – plenty of good form in big handicaps where a good finish is obscured by the numbers, hence the ‘duck eggs’ in his formline. He is a classy front runner but needs to dominate from the front else has difficulties sustaining any advantage. Saturday’s win showed just that, a small field giving him little opposition for the lead. I would say that 9/1 was not an outsider’s price either, the bookies clearly reading the formbook too. An educational exercise.

Catterick 3-35
Horatio Carter 3 7/2
Fathsta 9/2 4
Turn Me On 9/2 6
Lady Rengali 5 8

Sunrise Safari 6 9 BET 9/1 early

Result:
1 Celtic Sultan 9/1
2 Fathsta 3/1
3 Horatio Carter 5/2F

Sunrise Safari was 5th at 14/1, didn’t get the distance. It was an oversight to rule Celtic Sultan out – he has form in a higher grade and drops 15lbs from his last winning mark. That said, recent form and most of last year didn’t look inspiring. the weight drop should have been worth a point or two though – noted for future reference.

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The racing is not too good today – Haydock is heavy going despite it being summer already and Newmarket is mostly 3 yr old races. Elsewhere no grade 3 minimums, 7f – 1m, which is my preferred scenario. So, just the one at Catterick.

I am tempted to back the top rated, Horatio Carter, but the value principle says not to. It’s a dilemma, I admit; my top rated won both yesterday’s races and at 5/2 and 4/1. With hindsight, that sort of result is profitable. One doesn’t have hindsight though. The dilemma is the fine line between the form hoses at shortish prices and the less obvious types but at value prices. It’s a choice which one has to stick to for the longer term, not chop and change daily according to who wins.

At shorter prices, one needs higher turnover, 2,3,4 bets a day. The value approach needs fewer but one still has to keep skills honed with 3 or 4 betting days at least.

Some types of race are better suited to the value approach as well – Cheltenham and Aintree showed that with lottery-style payouts on seemingly indecipherable fields. Ideal for value seekers who are entirely comfortable living with such uncertainty.

Otherwise, run of the mill weekday punting would be a pleasure if one could indulge Monday to Friday, several bets a day. Fineform and some rough assessment of the price would bring steady profits, albeit a longer term grind.

So, what to do today? I will stick to my rule pending further pondering planning. One factor which has been encouraging is the simplification of the Form Value process and the use of Fineform to decide the order in which the field is looked at. I will think some more but feel to be close enough to a definitive approach.

Incidentally, I am doing a realtime survey of Fineform, rating the races at the day’s main meeting. Yesterday, FF top rated won 3 of the 7 on the card, FF 2nd rated won 3 others. Prices were from 11/10 to 4/1. This is the ‘master’ formula, Holt’s improved version.

What happened to him, anyway? Does the formula have any basis in reality of did he just take obvious factors and a psuedo-mathematical scoring system?

Taking a bit of a risk that he will get the distance, I will back Sunrise Safari, who has run well in higher grade races and has had a couple of runs to be ready for this. He is the ‘longest-priced’ value contender.

Newbury 2-40 Lockinge Stakes
Paco Boy 5 7/4
Major Cadeaux 11/2 16 BET 16 early price
Dream Eater 13/2 16
Aqlaam 15/2 5
Twice Over 8 9
Pressing 10 10
Virtual 10 7
Alexandros 10 18

Newbury 3-10
Alazeyab 6 25 BET 25 early price
Aqwaal 15/2 5/2
Sehoy 10 6
Legislate 10 11/2
Eastern Aria 14 20
Decision 14 20
Weald Park 15 16
Lasso The Moon 15 20
River Captain 16 10
Dialogue 20 11
Statue Book 25 50

I was tempted by Alexandros in the Lockinge Stakes if only because of the trainer’s record and Dettori riding but put off by the high mark – apparently too high for the race trends. The difference is only 2 points in the betting so not a difficult decision to favour Major Cadeaux at 16s. He has form in Group 1 and 2, is suited by the soft ground and fits the trends of this race, according to the Racing Post. He may also make the running in a race lacking an obvious pacemaker.

The 3-10 is for 3 year olds so little to go on and much to take on trust. Alazeyab is likely to be suited by the distance and should come on for his first run a couple of weeks ago. His trainer Micheal Jarvis is 10 for 39 with 3-yr olds at this course. Otherwise, Legislate is the ‘trend’ horse and favoured by the pace/draw though Alazeyab will be with the pacemakers on the rails side.

Post race:
1 Virtual 6/1
2 Alexandros 16/1
3 Twice Over 15/2
4 Paco Boy 11/8F
5 Major Cadeaux 12/1

My suspicions about Alexandros were right as he was beaten literally on the nod, his jockey’s whip having been accidentally knocked away by another rider. I stand by my bet on Major Cadeaux though, he did have the form and class for this, as well as the ground. He appeared to get going but too little, too late.

1 Aqwaal 6/4F
2 Decision 14/1
3 Holyrood
4 Lasso The Moon 14/1
5 Aurorian
6 River Captain 11/1
7 Legislate 6/1
8 Alazeyab 33/1

Described as well held under top weight, Alazeyab never challenged.