Oxeaxe….

Perth 3-55

Solway Minstrel 8 16
Easby Park 10 9
Scots Dragoon 10 6
Mr Preacher Man 12 8
C’monthehammers 14 5
Lily Tara 16 11/2
Stagecoach Opal 25 12

Great Approach 7/2 3 N/R

Distance and general quality questions about a number of these otherwise Solway Minstrel the value (8, 16), Great Approach most likely winner (7/2, 3).

Result:
1 C’monthehammers 11-2
2 Easby Park 7-2 Fav
3 Scots Dragoon 5-1
4 Doctor Kilbride 17/2

Busy tomorrow, so that’s the last Jumps race for this season :-(

I start looking at the Flat next week though :-)

A couple of races, initially uninteresting but the available prices look enticing:

Perth 2-40
Bermuda Pointe 4 10/3
Tom’s Toybox 5 7
Coach Lane 8 9
Ormello 9 8
Sharp Reply 9 4
Gentle John 12 10
Cool Operator 14 7

Result:
1 Cantgeton 20/1
2 Ormello 7/1
3 Coach Lane 8/1

Perth 4-40
South O’The Border 5/2 3
Qulinton 4 6
Wikaala 9/2 5/2
Terenzium 5 14
Los Nadis 10 16 BET 16 early
Rouge Et Blanc 11 6

Result:
1 South O’The Border 2/1 Jt Fav
2 Wikaala 2/1 Jt Fav
3 Echo Point 12/1
4 Los Nadis 16/1

Needless to say, V Williams will be targeting both these, having won them both last year. South O’The Border has a good chance. There are two longer-priced runners though, which are more obvious value – Terenzium (5, 14) and Los Nadis (10, 16) – I might play one or both of these.

In the earlier race, only Tom’s Toybox (5, 7) is early value and it might be better to wait for the on-course market.

Pre-race: I was tempted by Terenzium but further research gives the impression he has only won easier races. I backed Los Nadis eventually, his recent races being more difficult and the distance change is worth trusting. That said, P Monteith is not too hot at the moment (no wins in 52 days) whilst Mickey Hammond is 3 wins from 22 runs in the last 2 weeks.

There will only be a couple of Jumps races to go before I get into the Flat racing for the summer. As usual, I have left things until the last moment (put another way, I respond to deadlines) and have a few things to set up. These include some sort of trainer database (several copies of the Weekender updates still to go through) and the draw bias info – most likely on a spreadsheet. I have printed out the events calendar from the BHB site to provide some sort of map through the coming weeks. I am optimistic as the past weeks have been valuable in getting back up to speed; new ideas and much more effective form reading and odds compiling. Saturday’s result has been noted – I shall not be ‘Out To Lunch’ next time :-)

Also, James Quinn’s ‘The New Expert Handicappers’ has arrived – luscious bedtime reading for horse geeks!

The sun is shining and things are looking good – hopefully some of you will join me for the experience….

As well as the win single bet yesterday, I did the trifecta: Chiaro, Out The Black and Hello Bud in any order (my three top rated; something about Nine de Sivola put me off – F O’Murphy is not flying at the moment). Here’s the result:

1 Hello Bud 12/1
2 Gone To Lunch 12/1
3 Out The Black 12/1
4 Chiaro 10/1

The trifecta paid £1867.20. This result is what I have been looking for in the sense that it entirely vindicates the Form Value process. One identifies the most likely winners as well as highlighting value. I was especially pleased with the logic that went into this play – the bets were entirely consistent with the odds, no double guessing and with the win single a separate entity from the forecast. The ‘extra’ horse was no more than par for the course, so to speak – the proof of the pudding will always be in the lap of the gods to some extent and it no way detracts from the significance of the result. In short, I am highly encouraged for future shots at these lottery payouts.

Cheltenham 7-20
Tank Top 4 11/2
Mistress Nell 4 9/2
Zacharova 9/2 5
Lysander 7 13/2
Stolen Moments 8 8
D’Argent 10 7

Cheltenham 7-50
Laredo Sound 3 9/2
Suntini 8 7/2
Maraafeq 13 7
Leamington Lad 13 8
Simply Blue 18 10
Picot de Say 20 12
25 bar

I was almost put off by the evening starts to these – how can you race in the dark? I wondered. In the event, I don’t see the bookies being very generous with the early prices given the temptation for off-course punters to take them during the day rather than wait for the market in the evening. So, what do we have? In the 7-50, Laredo Sound comes out a firm favourite at 3/1, early 9/2, which is actually value. Maraafeq is dropped back in distance by Venetia Williams which I count as a plus but still don’t make him any better than 13/1, 7 early at Ladbrokes. Laredo is actually the only value in that race then.

In the 7-20, Tank Top and Mistress Nell are joint favs at 4/1, with Zacharova close on 9/2. Again, no conspicuous value to be had; 6/1 would strictly be needed to back Tank Top.

All in all, I might just pass or else go for Laredo Sound and Tank Top in a double.

Pre-race: ….which is what I have done….

Post-race:

1 Zacharova 12/1
2 Tank Top 100/30
3 Lysander 5/1

1 First Point 7/1
2 Leamington Lad 10/1
3 Laredo Sound 9/2

The point about early prices being short for evening races seems to have been bourne out here – Zacharova would almost certainly have been the bet at 12/1, value price 9/2. Of course, the clue was in the race name, the Mon Mome Handicap; I may adopt a new rule now, avoid any race with the words Mon Mome in it :-) Otherwise, my casual double came 2nd and 3rd.

Cheltenham 3-55
Kayf Aramis 9/2 12
Pennek 10 10
Theatrical Moment 15 7
Copsale lad 15 33
Oscatello 18 11
Gala Evening 18 12
Tisfreetdream 22 25
Galient 22 20
Snake Charmer 22 50
Sarde 22 16
25 bar

A nice lottery style race – the simple numbers bet is Snake Charmer though there is a doubt about the distance here, as with a number of others. Rain has now complicated matters. I’m somewhat against strict interpretation of the fundamentals – any horse for whom it’s possible to ‘tick every box’ is bound to be unprofitable in the long run – nevertheless, stamina is going to be a prerequisite on this course. On that basis, I would go for Copsdale Lad.

Still time to think though (started a bit later than ideal this morning but removes any frantic ‘must get the early price’ mania) so will update in a while.

Post-race:

1st (23) Made In Japan 33-1
2nd (2) Kayf Aramis 20-1
3rd (9) The Package 40-1
4th (17) Gala Evening 11-1

I went for the tricast in this rather than a win single – Kayf Aramis, Pennek and Copsdale Lad in that order. I felt Kayf Aramis would do well for Venetia Williams, of course, but there was always the possibility of a ‘random’ horse getting the result – Made in Japan was one of my longer odds (25/1, 16/1 early) though I ruled out The Package entirely. I am learning to incorporate the less obvious ones in my assessment – it’s better to leave one in than to be too quick ruling it out, certainly initially and if you are going for the value bets rather than the form selections then these have to be given a chance (even if you can’t see why :-)) Gala Evening was 18/1 value price and lost for me a while back.

At 20/1 Kayf Aramis may have been tempting as a win single but I can’t honestly say – I wasn’t at the bookies to take that price anyway. He lengthened in the on-course market whilst Copsdale Lad shortened, both moves perturbing me momentarily. There was the usual clever speculation on the lighter weighted horses due to the rain though these higher grade events are possibly not as susceptible to that tactic.

A bit of an experiment then and very interesting to see how reality measures up to one’s predictions, especially after various mental convolutions in trying to pick three from even one’s own shortlist. The CSF paid £568.22 so maybe trying for the extra horse was a bit unnecessary :-)

Another good race I feel and more to look forward to tomorrow.

I didn’t realise there was decent racing at Cheltenham today – out of the routine after the Bank holiday. So, one quick odds line, fill in the others later (the bookies are being a bit stingy anyway, so we are not missing much :-))

Cheltenham 2-45
Le Duc 7 5
Gidam Gidam 8 9
Never So Blue 8 11
Trigger the Light 9 6
Alexanderthegreat 9 9
Tara River 10 33 BET 33/1
Gaora Lane 10 6
Seymar Lad 12 NR
Obaki de Guissay 12 9

Cheltenham 3-20
From Dawn to Dusk 5 11/2
Dave’s dream 6 4
Hernando Royal 9 5
South O’the Border 9 8
Eleazar 10 25 BET Tote (SP 18/1)
Naiad de Misselot 11 14
Seven Is My Number 13 7
Dastardly Dick 16 9

Cheltenham 3-55
Mr Boo 5/2 6
Atouchbetweenacara 6 7/2
Private Be 7 9/2
Le Burf 8 6
Fier Normand 8 7
Nikola 10 12
Oceanos des Obeaux 12 12

Tana River ran well for one circuit but then went rapidly backwards. The race was won by Boychuk at 17/2, a non-contender in my assessment which was clearly wrong. I am becoming more aware of these ‘non-obvious’ horses – the form is just that, with long layoffs, apparently poor recent form, some kind of trainer angle going on. They can pay well and are not too difficult to identify, particularly when one adopts the view of a race as simply probabilities rather than selections, what Quinn calls ‘outcome scenarios’ – it’s important to get out of the fine tuning of ’selections’ and recognise that one is looking, not for the best horse but for the best bet.

A case in point in the 3-20: Eleazar looked to be in with a serious chance but for the horrendously long run to the second last (it seemed about 3 miles!) In the event, 3rd at 18/1 was value. I played the Tote (so no idea what I would have got – it was about 18s at the off) having missed the 25/1 early price.

I won’t bother with the 3-55 as there is no value at the early prices. Overall, one good bet at least today and I will make a note of Boychuk for future reference.