Oxeaxe….

Lingfield 4-35
Miss Mitch 11/4 10/3
Hoo La Baloo 9/2 8
My Way De Solzen 11/2 7
Laskari 7 7
Mister Quasimodo 8 10
——————————
Coach Lane 11 10

The bet is Hoo La Baloo at 8/1, value price 9/2.

Yesterday’s assessment and bet was better than the result suggests :-) It seems Church Lane was looking dangerous but then blundered; likewise Ungaro ran well for long enough. The third of the three contenders came 2nd.

Elsewhere, the Flat starts today! I will just watch for a month or so to let the form settle down. I notice that quite a few in the Lincoln are fir from the All Weather – I don’t recall that being the case years ago. However, with the big field and draw effect it is still a gamble.

Ascot 4-05
Mizen Raven 5/2 9/4
Jack The Blaster 6 6
Fire And Rain 7 7/2
South Bank 9 8
——————–
By George 10 12
Zanzibar Boy 10 5

Ascot 4-40
Church Island 7/4 8
Out The Black 7/4 9/2
——————–
Ungaro 10 6

I have taken the early 8/1 about Church Island. I was quite strict about conditions for this race so ruled out most of the runners on distance, class and recent form. I would prefer Out The Black to Church Island but suspect the going will not remain good (watering and rain forecast) – is it just my perception or is Ascot notorious for watering to excess during the summer? Anyway, both on that ground and the all-important prices, Church Island has to be the bet. Ungaro doesn’t make the cut though he is tipped by a number of commentators; again, price makes the decision easy.

Nothing yet in the 4-05, all contend and no overlays – might be one to leave alone.

Summer starts tomorrow with the Lincoln at Doncaster :-) I won’t be looking at the Flat for a month at least, there is still plenty of interesting ‘proper’ racing yet a while.

Towcester 3-10
Pagano 5 7/2
Tampa Boy 6 7
Spider Boy 7 12
Daryal 8 12
Smoothly Does It 8 7
Holethelonely 9 5
(Pickamus 10 7/2 N/R)

I’ve realised that handicap hurdles are something of a crap shoot and, true to form, all the runners in the Towcester 3-10 got a rating. That said, I ruled out Faversham as the lowest scoring and neither Mujamead nor Approved Force made the odds cut (both 12/1 in my book).

A clear bet in Daryal at 14/1. Good trainer comments and conditions to suit. I favour horses near the top of the handicap when the going is good so am happy with this bet. Spider Boy the only other overlay but near the lower end of the card and, despite good recent form I see him as placing only.

I nice start to the week then, no complications, traumas or rushing, just straightforward value.

Post-race: Well, I picked the wrong one – Spider Boy, the other overlay, won at 9/1, Tampa 2nd 5/1 and Smoothly 3rd 7/1. I’ll await the Racing post’s comments before too much of a post-mortem; Daryal ran poorly belying the trainer’s reported comments that he would strip fitter for his first race. Is this the ‘bounce’? Whatever, Spider Boy made all and it seems his light weight told.

What started off fine turned into a mess though I think I have learnt something.

After an initial wobble of confidence, I felt good about backing Mister McGoldrick at the early 14/1 – the price shortened considerably. I didn’t realise that this was partly due to an early non-runner. In fact, by the time I got to the office the field of 12 had been reduced to just 5! The ground had dried out and that should have been a warning sign.

In the event, I went for a trifecta on the three longest priced – somewhat dumb as none of them featured as contenders on my odds line. The two which did came first and second, the winner being odds on and even the forecast very short.

Rather than just leave things for the day, I watched the 3-45 at Haydock, a race I had seen no value in from the early prices but now spotted 17/2 for Brave Rebellion. I waited, hoping for 9s but the off was imminent and I took 8s. He ran poorly, a hold-up horse, and likewise another daft forecast bit the dust when an unfit Sanders Road tailed off. Chronically poor betting and made worse by the winner making all at 16/1.

What do I learn from it all? Firstly, when there is a last minute change in going and numerous withdrawals, take a step back and ask if you want still to be involved. The answer should be ‘no’. I felt I might be able to make an opportunistic profit with Tote forecasts in a reduced field but any forecasts need to be prepared in advance, just as any straight win bets. If the race changes, back off – there will be other chances.

Secondly, a bet must not only be based on the numbers but feeling as well – if you do not feel good about a bet don’t make it. The feeling is most likely right, based as it is on accumulated memeory of patterns and already-seen scenarios. The best bets feel correct. Bet only of you will be satisfied whatever the outcome – winners take care of themselves, your job is to take care of the bets.

Thirdly, Haydock appeared to favour front-runners – is this a fact about the course worth noting? I believe Ascot during the summer is the same.

Fourthly and most interestingly, how come Ela Re made all to win well and at a price? And how did I come to rule her out? I looked again at the form and admit to making a basic error – she was a contender on class and recent form. Moreover, the change in distance should have sounded positive warning bells. Previously a prolific winner over 2 miles, this race was 2m 5f. Why such a leap in distance? A winning trainer wouldn’t do that for fun and it appears now to have been a classic scenario and one to note for the future: any significant change in distance, going or class relative to good recent form and by a trainer in form is a positive sign. And what do we see here? Ela Re running 5f further than previous wins and with a class drop! Classic! It also helps to check the previous form if there is a suspicion – Ela Re’s run over this distance on 25 Jan 05 was reported thus by the RP:

Worries about any lack of pace were dispelled when Ela Re anticipated the start and took a 10-length lead which he did not look like yielding for a long way. As his form is on a sounder surface, this was an eyecatching run aided by a steady slippage in rating, although the overall form is suspect.

In other words, the signs were there….

I will start a database now of trainers who do this – next time, I will be watching and make up for Saturday’s oversight. For now, a couple of days to clear my head and start afresh on Wednesday. The resolution, apart from to learn from these mistakes, is to make fewer poor bets.

Excellent result yesterday – Tom’s Toybox was given a brilliant ride by Lucy Horner to win at 8/1. I had taken 12s in the morning so very pleasing. He was some way off the pace until the last when he took over to win by a head.

I took some gloss off the afternoon with an ill-considered bet on Panama At Once, trying to see the value at 5/1 (value price 7/2) and hoping for 11/2. Either way, he unseated his rider and was not going noticeably well against classier opposition. Mister Apples had caught my eye during the form reading but I neglected him due to the price. An unsatisfying play without a doubt.

I think I have learnt something though, namely that stayers are big and get into a rhythm, their weight carrying them over the fences steadily. The contrast between Panama and Mister Apples was striking in that regard.

Anyway, I resolve to make fewer poor bets and save ammo for the better ones. The key is to ask if you would feel happy with the bet regardless of the outcome – it’s fundamentally obvious that not all bets win and talk of picking the winner is nonsense when it’s done with hindsight. So, we talk only of bets and strive to make good bets, a learnable skill that nevertheless must be exercised and honed continually.

That said, today’s bet might just be off the mark entirely :-)

Haydock 3-15
Saunders road 5/2 9/2
Daldini 4 4
Wot Way Chief 4 4
Brave Rebellion 5 13/2
Oneway 10 14

Haydock 3-45
Prince Taime 3 2
Mister McGoldrick 7/2 14
Coq Hardi 4 9/2
Theatre Diva 6 8

I have backed Mister McGoldrick at 14s early. He has done well enough in classy races but his age is a concern. What I have overlooked is that his form is all chasing not hurdles – fairly dim of me!

In the 3-15, Oneway is left out as not true value, the others are nothing to get excited about at the early prices; Saunders Road possibly worth consideration.

Pre-race: My condidence in Mister McGoldrick is being boosted somewhat. The Racing Post’s informative Market Mover’s page shows some money for him, 16s into 10s with Chandler, now 12s from 14s with Ladbrokes.

Kelso 4-00
Nikola 4 9/2
Tom’s Toybox 5 12
Cast Iron Casey 6 3
Bill’s Echo 6 15/2
Marcel 7 15/2

Kelso 4-35
Panama At Once 7/2 4
King Barry 9/2 5/2
Mister Apples 5 13/2
Stagecoach Diamond 11/2 5
Rimsky 8 7
Hidden Bounty 10 9

I took the early 12/1 Tom’s Toybox. Daldini being a non-runner, the new book makes him better value still though it’s always worrying when Ladbroke’s shorten everthing else except one’s own treasured runner – what do they know?

No bet yet in the 4-35. I had hoped Mister Apples would be value (I glanced at the forecast) but no such luck – really stingy prices in fact, even with According to Whatsisname being withdrawn. Since i had ruled him out anyway, it made no difference to my book. I feel I should at least get a consolation prize (though for what exactly, I’m not sure). I will keep an eye on things as Apples is 9s elsewhere.

I feel good about Toybox and in both races my line parallels the bookies nicely which is reassuring – still waiting for the job offer though….

Incidentally, have I added this up right? William Hill’s book comes to just 93%: 4, 11/2, 13/2, 7, 8, 9, 12, 66. Perhaps Easy Odds have not updated the shows? Or maybe just a promotion in which case I need to get an online account….

Ludlow 3-05
Cold Harbour 4 5
Archimbolo 6 8
Starr Flyer 6 6
Cootehill 9 11/2
Butterfly Rose 9 6
Capitalise 10 16

Ludlow 3-35
Mizen Raven 2 6/4
Haar 3 5
Spring Lover 7/2 4

The first of these is interesting – many runners with form, fitness or distance doubts but with some pluses as well – pretty much a number play as the most likely winner is by no means clear. I draw the odds cutoff before Capitalise at 10s which leaves Archimbolo at 8/1 with Corals, 2 points over my own odds, as the bet. Strictly speaking 9s would have been required (50% overlay) but I am not unhappy with this as it stands. I think this course will help.

In the 3-35, Haar is value at 5/1 and hence a bet. Nothing too much to say – four runners ruled out leaving three close in the odds.

I would consider a win double on these two races but am in no hurry to start on exotics just yet.

Pre-race: Is Ladbroke’s early book on the Ludlow 3-05 132% overround? That’s 3% per runner. Bad.

Haar now 6/1 at Coral’s – irritating. If it ever reaches 7s I will have a bit more on.

Post-race: Archimbolo didn’t look keen to race and started 10 or more lengths behind the rest. He did catch up though and I was pleased with his running just behind the leaders, looking to be going well and handily placed outside for a challenge. Then he fell so we will never know if this was to have been his day. I think a good bet from what I saw, particularly in a somewhat unclear race with pluses and minuses for nearly every runner. It will be interesting to see his next appearance.

Haar also ran well, at the last the only challenger to evens favourite Mizen Raven and finishing 2nd though by several lengths. I had Mizen down as 2/1 favourite so a forecast finish so to speak (though I didn’t bet that way, just the win.)

Two good plays then.

Elsewhere, the Ayr 3-25 was amusing – it caught my eye whilst waiting for the next betting race as there were joint favourites, both at evens in a 4-runner contest. They were both some way clear of the other pair and going well when, seemingly inexplicably, they both fell at the same fence. The others sped past as the fallen jockeys seemed to commiserate with each other whilst lounging on the turf. The winner was General Stone Hll at 50/1, 2nd Bad Day Bad Day at 12s; the CSF paid £312.52.

Postscript: Not amusing at all as it turned out – I read in the RP this morning that one of the fallers, Netherley, was killed and the jockey badly shook up by the fall. Racing can go from one extreme to another in a moment….

Kempton 3-40
Royaleety 7/4 4
Laredo Sound 9/2 9/2
Mendo 6 12
Shannon Springs 9 12
Owlesbury Dream 10 16

First day back, full of good resolutions and a nice couple of Class 3 races at Kempton. I may look at the later race sometime but for now the 3-40 presents a mild dilema; the longest price value rule means Owlesbury Dream is the bet but I have chosen to go with Mendo, 12/1 at Ladbrokes. Distance, going and class explain his recent form figures and 12/1 is surely value – indeed, without Owlesbury there would be no question. Is Owlesbury genuine value then? Just, a borderline case though – I may have erred on the side of optimism in which case Owlesbury is more likely 11s or even 12s. Either way, the discrepancy would not be sufficient. At 20s, sure, otherwise I feel this is not a major misdemeanour. Basically, she is the outsider of the odds range so could conceivably not make the cut oddswise.

Let’s see what happens – if she wins I will be more convinced of the ‘longest-priced’ rule as an actual rule, if not then some leeway will remain. It’s not ideal given that I kept in mind, during the form reading and scoring, that any horse getting a score (i.e. remaining a contender) would be a bet at the right price.

Of course, there can always be more than one value horse in a race so Mendo remains value anyway – it’s just the thought of a 16/1 payout :-)

Incidentally, a copy of Quinn’s ‘Recreational Handicapping’ arrived yesterday. The Americans are light years ahead of the British in this game – published in 1990 it pains me to think that I have only now read what he has to say on value. Basically, it’s exactly what I have arrived at myself (the hard way). Never bet underlays, for one thing. The whole realm of exotics beckoning to ‘pay boxcars’ (my expression of the week now :-)) In short, I am in the wrong country when it comes to true individualistic entrepreneurship, yet, irritatingly, in the right place for betting opportunities – in the US I don’t think you can take a price, just the pari-mutuel pool odds, unknown before the off. If you can make it pay under those conditions, we should be laughing here in backward old Blighty.

Furthermore, is this an an omen? On an impulse I picked up a couple of old photo albums from the secondhand store here. A bit sad, I thought, that someone had clearly been on the holiday of a lifetime to the USA in 1989 and gone to the trouble of collecting the whole thing in a scrapbook – postcards, photos, entry tickets, even flight tickets and bording passes. It looked as if they had then died and the collection was sadly part of a house clearance. Anyway, the ‘omen’ was my finding two $1 bills tucked in there. Given my longheld wish to go to the ‘Land of the Free’, I shall put them towards the fare.

Post-race: That was a good bet to start the week! Mendu came second at 13/2 and looked the winner at the last but for Earth Dream making rapid headway to finish several lengths in front – I had dismissed him in my assessment after some thought though he would not have been a bet at the 11/2 SP. I am very pleased with this play as it came as the result of careful form reading and a nicely constructed odds line, plus the decision to back the longest-priced value and without reference to the forecast line. My decision to make the cut-off before Owlesbury Dream was vindicated – she came 10th at 20/1, but I have to confess to some woolly thinking in the form of a small CSF with Mendo to beat Owlesbury. I have to work out and assimilate a proper (that is, consistent) exotics strategy – no more forecast bets until that’s worked out – the straight win singles should keep me happy for now :-)

Reading James Quinn I am reminded of his distinction between selections and decisions. He went into this in his hi-tech handicapping book from the 1980s (now a neat read for it’s retro feel and predictive accuracy in this age of online form and betting.) He mellows somewhat in the Recreational book, in that selections are recommended in some instances e.g. when there is a clear most likely winner and it’s odds are acceptable i.e. an overlay. I will bear that in mind but tend towards the decision approach, of which today’s bet was a nice example – I decided on the odds range and backed the longest-priced.

I didn’t look at the 4-10 but maybe should have done as Green Gamble made all at odds of 16/1. I can’t say I would have backed him but make a note that 7 runner fields can also be a source of value (or at least longer priced winners.)

Nothing of sufficient quality tomorrow so a rest before the weekend (which apparently starts Thursdays :-))