Sat 28 Feb 09 Gidam Gidam….

Potentially six races this morning, too many, of course, so here are the prices for the three I did get through with my prices first then the early prices for comparison:

Newbury 2-35
Church Island 3 9/2
Go For One 9/2 3
Darkness 5 7/2

Doncaster 2-55
Iroquois Warrior 3 5
Fairoak Lad 4 5
Sheriff Hutton 4 7/2
Stripe Me Blue 5 7
Georgian King 5 8

Doncaster 3-25
Alderburn 4 3
Gidam Gidam 4 14
Out The Black 5 6
Noir Et Vert 6 4

Of these, just one bet so far, Gidam Gidam at 14/1. Without going into great detail (I don’t have my notes to hand) I don’t see anything particularly wrong with his form – recent runs have been good, including at 4 miles and with a high Topspeed figure. Out of the handicap, true, but nothing I can see to justify 14/1 and I see he is now 11/1.

Elsewhere, Iroquois Warrior is interesting at 11/2 (VP 3/1 fav) – I would personally take a chance on his fitness.

Fri 27 Feb 09 Racing….

One race looked at so far, my prices and the earlies:

Newbury 2-40
Pepsyrock 7/4 4/6
Kelrev 6 16
Sole Agent 7 8
Rapide Plaisir 8 9
It’s Crucial 12 10
Farmer’s Lad 20 8

Pepsyrock has a lot going for it, not least a cute name, but I am always wary of odds-on follow ups – somehow I don’t see they can ever be guarenteed and, by definition, there must be a ‘bargain’ elsewhere. He is still the Most Likely Winner though – highest Topspeed and Racing post ratings, only 7lb higher than his latest easy win at Sandown, clearly progressive and fit to win. If you are happy with the price, back him.

A funny race otherwise – I mean, everything seems to have some sort of chance though some way behind Pepsyrock odds-wise – there is nothing ‘clearcut’ so to speak. I am encouraged that the early prices reflect my own assessment in that regard – only Farmer’s Lad and Kelrev are out of line.

Farmer’s Lad fails on winning form and trainer form, though his ratings are not miles behind Pepsyrock’s. His only win is in a lower class though and there is nothing to suggest he is progressing in any way – why back a horse at the bottom of the handicap if you believe class has any meaning? I have also marked him down on distance and going – all in all too many doubts.

On the other hand, Kelrev, at the top of the handicap, is taking a drop compared to his recent runs. Is that recent form so bad? His last race was 3 miles and he struggled after the 14th fence – the distance too long? Prior to that, deadheat 3rd, the winning group 15 lengths clear of the field. Both runs, significantly, in Class 2 company. In other words, good recent form in a higher class plus a distance change – any change needs to be noted.

His trainer, A King, is in top form. The only significant negative are the first-time blinkers though the break since December may be a good thing. I make him 6/1 so the early price of 16s has to be taken.

Who will take the lead in this, given a number of ‘hold-up’ types? Sole Agent made all at Folkestone last time but appears to be a horse-for-course and may prefer softer ground.

Bet Kelrev 16/1 early, value price 6/1.

Pre-race: Farmer’s Lad now 6s from 8s.

Post-race: Couldn’t get to watch the race (musical commitments) but Kelrev appears to have ran poorly after all, though backed from 12s into 8s. Pepsyrock won comfortably despite dodgy jumping, with front runner Sole Agent 2nd at 16s. Farmer’s Lad fell, 11/2.

The Racing Post report says, ‘Kelrev, dropping back from 3m, was having his first outing for 62 days and met some support. The first-time blinkers evidently failed to suit, however, and he was a long way below par.’

‘Pepsyrock somewhat belatedly came good for connections at Sandown a week previously and he followed up under a penalty, but things were not always plain sailing. He was patiently ridden and moved like by far the best horse in the contest, but he met the third-last all wrong and was also none too clever at the final fence. He still had any amount in hand at the finish and is obviously progressive, but he will need to improve his fencing if he is to defy a likely higher mark when bidding for the hat-trick as he was already due to race off 5lb more in the future.’

‘Sole Agent, back to winning ways at Folkestone a month earlier, gave a decent account of himself from the front yet simply found the winner in a different league. This was no disgrace from a 7lb higher mark, on ground he would have found lively enough, and he is now clearly back in decent heart.’

I think a reasonable analysis on my part, identifying the winner (including the doubts), the front runner and not the only one to support Kelrev (getting on at twice SP.)

Racing Wed 26 Feb….

Just one race today:

Ludlow 3-50
Pretty Star 2 7/2
Major Malarkey 9 6
Iron Man 10 14
Down’s Folly 11 7
Hermano Cordobes 11 5

Only Pretty Star qualifies on the ‘6/1 or shorter’ rule – a case of what Mark Cramer calls the ’short-priced overlay’ category. I have backed it at 4/1 early.

Of the others, some class horses on previous form; Major Malarkey tipped in the Racing Post on his chasing debut but too short in my book; Iron Man is interesting at the early 14/1 (positive trainer quote, previous class wins) and Hermano Cordobes has highest Topspeed figures. None of these qualify simply because there are too many others with similar doubts and virtues to make any of them a value price. If I did have to go for one it would be Iron Man at these prices.

The change to good ground from recent weeks of mud is also a factor and may see horses return to form on a better surface. I am sure that was a factor in yesterday’s Never So Blue win.

Incidentally, Huckleberry came 4th albeit by a long way so my fears were not totally groundless – one to watch?

Pre-race: Distance is a doubt in Iron Lord’s case though he is now 10/1 at Ladbrokes from 14s. Pretty Star now 7/2 from 4s.

Post-race: Pretty Star came 2nd, beaten by Kilcrea Asla, a horse I hadn’t reckoned on. A good run and bet though – nicely against the rail in 3rd then off the rail and clear to challenge the leader towards the home turn, unfortunately not finding enough and almost losing 2nd place to 33/1 Super Chief. I’m happy with both the assessment and the bet though make a note of Pretty Star’s being caught for the win on a couple of occasions now. The heavily backed Hermano Cordobes looked to be running well in midfield but then faded to a distant 4th, never a challenge to the leaders. Iron Man never got into the race.

Racing Wed 25 Feb 09….

I’m starting the betting week a day early – there are a couple of reasonable races and I am impatient to get rich :-) Value prices and currently available early prices as follows:

Bangor 3-50
Ultimate Limit 6/4 10/11
Never So Blue 5 8 Bet 8E
Ballyvoge 6 10
Huckleberry 6 16
Darvina’s Boy 7 14

Here, I’m not sticking to the rule about the longest priced being the bet – I think the drying ground might be significant and soft ground perhaps accounted for the recent less-than-optimal running. In addition, Never So Blue has the highest Topspeed rating of the field, another plus. My ‘other’ horse is Huckleberry, the ‘rules’ bet at 16s. If Huckleberry does win, I will be miffed to put it mildly :-) Ultimate Limit is heavily touted in the papers and has obvious claims with a light weight – not at this price though.

Folkestone 4-10
Lyes Green 4 9 Bet 9E
Apatura Dik 4 8
New Perk 5 13/2

Apatura Dik has a high Topspeed figure in this field but I am going with the higher class of Lyes Green, which is the ‘rules’ bet anyway.

Bangor 4-20
Im The Decider 7/2 6/4
Caipiroska 4 7/2
Dan Buoy 11/2 16 Bet 16E
Snake Charmer 6 7
Dom d’Orgeral 6 7

Dan Buoy is a standout value price and no qualms about this bet.

In other news, I have modified the scoring system. I have used Mark Coton’s scores for a long while but have never felt confident about the trainer/jockey factor – it seems a potentially profitable angle but one requiring research and statistics. The Racing Post does have much more extensive stats for this nowadays but even so I don’t want to mess around too much with it, for now at least. I have missed the occasional winner due to down-rating it on the trainer’s score – the new scoring includes that angle but as a much lower percentage of the total. Trainers’ form will still count then but not sway the final total so much should I get things wrong.

The new scoring is out of 100 rather than the original 150, though I multiply by 1.5 since I can more readily calculate the odds from that familiar base.

I tried this out yesterday and today for real – it works nicely with a satisfying spread of marks and hence value prices. Let’s see now to what extent it corresponds to reality….

Pre-race update: Huckleberry now 12s from 16s – slightly worrying :-(
On the other hand, Lyes Green 8s from 9s – somewhat reassuring :-)

Post-race: Never So Blue won nicely at 9/1. My fears about Huckleberry were unfounded though I had a slight wobble before the off and made a ’saver’ CSF in case they came 1-2 the wrong way round. Completely illogical and not thought through but never mind. The finish saw Never holding off challenges from the favourite and Durante so a good performance – not to say good form reading :-) I make a note of the jockey….

Not so good was Lyes Green who never really got into it – I did think my ‘other’ horse Apaptura Dik might win after making almost all – ‘almost’ being the operative word as Russian Trigger and Emroblin caught him. He did run easily throughout this marathon though and a pity to lose after that.

Dan Buoy got reminders early on and faded all too soon – a poor run. The favourite won and Snake Charmer ran well.

Sat 21 Feb 09 Racing….

After a couple of interesting days, I have decided to tighten up the betting side of the operation. These are the rules:

1. Only consider horses with 6/1 or shorter Value Prices.
2. 50% overlay required.
3. In case of several contenders on the above rules, back the longest priced.

I will explain (probably at great length :-)) the rationale later. For now, today’s business, just the one race and my prices as usual:

Kempton 4-15
Pop Ahead 3
Randwick Roar 4
The Hairy Lemon 5
Le Burf 6

Wasted an hour on the 1-30 race but too many with some sort of chance so nothing at 6s or less. More later….

Update:
Early prices were as follows (VPs first for comparison),

Pop Ahead 3 2
Randwick Roar 4 8
The Hairy Lemon 5 12
Le Burf 6 5

The Hairy Lemon is a bet at 12/1, following the above betting rules. It’s 9s elsewhere though Ladbrokes traditionally are more accurate. Nevertheless, I disregard the poor recent form and look at the trainer intention and drop in weight/class. I did look again at the form but remain happy with it’s chances.

Now an explication of the betting rules:

1. Only consider horses with 6/1 or shorter Value Prices.
This ensures a reasonable strike rate and clearly steers towards horses where there is a degree of certainty (though not necessarily obviousness) in the form assessment. There is enough action with this constraint though I have yet to work out (from statistical analyses) the true accuracy. Suffice to say it keeps one on the right side of the line from the form point of view.

2. 50% overlay required.
This allows a margin of error in spotting a value price, one point either way not being clear enough. So, 6/1 needs 9/1 for a bet.

3. In case of several contenders on the above rules, back the longest priced.
Possibly less obvious but both the value odds and those on offer are, after all, only estimates. I think it’s sufficient to identify clear value without then trying to quantify it to the nearest decimal place which would be using two estimates and compounding any guess work still further. In my experience, the biggest priced seems to win as often as the ‘other horse’, or at least often enough to cover the losses. Yesterday’s race was an example, Le Beau Bai qualified and won at 10/1 whilst my ‘more likely’ winner came 5th. This is not just hindsight, it has happened often enough. It is also in line with using the personal odds line to identify good bets rather than using the figures as a rigid determinant.

The first two rules are from Mark Cramer but make a lot of sense and I was slowly coming round to those ideas myself. The first rule also relates to the race having the ‘right shape’ for a bet in that numerous, less clear, contenders are ruled out. Today’s 1-30 race didn’t pass this rule so didn’t lead to a bet in a ‘messy’ situation. Both the Marks have this idea (Cramer discusses at length different race scenarios and Coton talks of the ’shape of the race’. I was also developing this notion given my previous observations – I called it the Odds Profile.)

Further thoughts: I erred again as far as recent form went – seems the poor shows were, indeed, as bad as they looked. Recent form must be good even if the form figures are not obviously so – a good run in a higher class, at a longer distance or on different going. In this case, there were no mitigating circumstances and the horse should have been thrown out. I worked to hard to make a case for it and put other factors foremost such as the class drop, top-rated RP ratings, trainer in form, won this last year and so on. But, recent form shows the immediate resdiness to exploit these plusses and such readiness was not there.

On the positive side, Le Burf and Pop Ahead won and came 3rd respectively so, presumably, I am vaguely in the right direction as far as form assessment goes.

Friday 20 Feb 09 Racing….

I have got a bit behind with things today, hence a late and short post. My prices:

Musselburgh 3-45
Noir Et Vert 4
Kalmo Bay 5
Mr Preacher Man 6
South Bronx 7
Our Jasper 7
Brave Rebellion 7

Most Likely Winner (MLW) is Noir Et Vert, I will look for the board prices later. South Bronx currently 11s at Coral’s.

Warwick 4-05
The Ring 3
Obaki de Guissay 3.5
Le Beau Bai 6
Keenan’s Future 7
Joyrider 8

MLW is The Ring and I will back him if the early 5.5 is still avalable. Le Beau Bai currently 10s at Coral’s.

More later….

Pre race update: Took 11/2 about The Ring which is good. Vert Et Noir even shorter at Ladbrokes, 11/4, so no bet there as yet. South Bronx is beginning to look interesting at 12s – I will hang on to see if I can get 14s for a bet.

Post races: Musselburgh. Backed South Bronx at 14s but should have waited as 20s eventually became available. Had something on the Tote to compensate. He ran reasonably then faded. Noir Et Vert came 3rd and was no way value at 2/1 fav (VP 4). I was perturbed to have bet quickly as Kalmo Bay was 9/1 (VP 5) and would have been a more attractive play than South Bronx though still a loser (ran poorly throughout).

Warwick. Took the 11/2 early price then another bet at 8s as the market price drifted. Also, a CSF with him to beat Le Beau Bai (10s). The Ring ran well enough but tired to come 5th. Le Beau Bai won at 10s.

This set me to thinking (as it does); earlier a friend asked why not back two horses in a race? I said that each way bets mount up and are not as safe as they look. However, it occurs to me that backing two value horses to win might be the way. An element of hindsight is obvious here – Le Beau Bai was value (VP 6) and won at 10s. Would it have been correct to back both? What about a ‘rule’ for future races? It just seems better than EW (with it’s fractional odds the place) and the additional bet is surely covered by the value prices.

Need to think on this and check recent records….

Ayr, Thursday 19th….

Just the one race today, the others being either too many runners or too low a class. In the event, this is a class 4 race with 10 runners so just about right (class 3 is the ideal minimum).

FV prices and early prices so far this morning:

Ayr 4-15

PANAMA AT ONCE 3 6
NELLIEDONETHAT 3.5 2.75
TRISON’S STAR 8 6
SKENFRITH 10 16
INCAS 12 25
ALMIRE DU LIA 12 14
CHAMOCO 14 8

The forecast had Skenfrith at 20s which would be tempting. His recent form is not very good but won this a couple of years ago and on a ‘winning’ mark – I see a chance of an outsider popping up on the soft/heavy ground and am encouraged by the jockey’s course strike rate.

Panama at Once is obviously value; again the short-price vs greed scenario. I will think on this and see what comes up at Ladbrokes in a while.

Update: Took the early price of 6/1 for Panama at Once, twice my odds of 3/1 favourite. Skenfrith is as short as 9s at Coral’s which is too short for a bet and suggests they think it may pop up. Otherwise, Incas might be of interest at 20s (VP 12s) but there are doubts about fitness, distance and going – possibly a CSF behind Panama?

The bookies favourite this morning is Nelliedonethat at 2/1 (VP 7/2) – I rate Panama a couple of FV points higher but he is on offer at a much bigger price – this is the key to value betting, the balance of Form and Prices, quantifying uncertainty – it’s like a roulette wheel which is biased – over time you cannot lose. Plus, it’s fun to go shopping :-)

Post race: Good race! Taken along by front runner Beobach, who was 8 lengths clear at one point, Panama was always handy in 3rd or 4th. The field became strung out in testing conditions and the leader was overtaken by Almire and Panama, the rest increasingly further back. After the second last, Panama passed the steady-paced Almire and had only the last to clear for victory. Would you believe it?! Tired, he jumped awkwardly, almost fell and handed the lead back to Almire. He was unable to make up for the error in the run in and Almire won by half a length, the pair clear of the rest.

I wouldn’t have backed Almire at the prices though 9/1 would have been welcome. My price was 12s. The bet was Panama at 6s early price, subject to a deduction (Rule 4) of 10p/£ when Skenfrith was withdrawn. A conspiricist might think that the shortening price during the day was deliberately setting up the deduction across the board; in the event, 5.4/1 was value against my 3/1 odds.

Beyond that, there is not much to say except that this is the type of result that reassures me the ’system’ is working. More fun tomorrow!

Wednesday FV….

Started a day earlier this week, there being a couple of better grade races on. Form Value prices of interest:

Doncaster 3-20
Kandjar d’Allier 5
King Harald 5
Spring Lover 6
Cool Roxy 11

Ludlow 3-35
Nortonthorpe Lad 2
Working Title 5/2
King’s Revenge 5
Quasar d’Oudairies 8

I might take a punt on the outsiders in both these.

Pre-race update: Donc 3-20. I have backed Cool Roxy at 25/1 (Coral’s). It’s 16s at Ladbrokes and I make it 11s. It has equal top-rated Topspeed with King Harald. I am tempted to do the CSF as well, King Harald to come second of the pair.

Ludl 3-35. Quasar d’Allier as short as 6s at both C and L’s, so no bet there (FV 8/1). The paper’s forecast was out, having got my interest. Nortonthorpe Lad 4s at the moment which is value (FV odds 2/1); Working Title 5/2 (FV same) and King’s Revenge 8s at C and Ls, 10s elsewhere – a possible bet if I can get 10s when the board prices go up.

It’s often difficult to make a decision as one’s own prices are not set in stone and a point either way can blur the issue. I am happy with the Donc 3-20 race but undecided (and indecisive) about Ludl 3-35. It will be Nortonthorpe or King’s though, if anything.

PM: The Racing post mentioned that Cool Roxy ran above himself. He did go well for a while but too many front runners meant a fast pace and the race went to the waiting horses.

King’s Revenge also seemed to be ok for a while but I didn’t like the way his head drooped and he was somewhat floppy going over the fences. Tipped by both Daily mail and Topspeed though and some money on the course. My ‘other’ horse Nortonthorpe Lad won. There is an issue here about backing the longer priced when there are shorter priced who are also value. Both can occur in a race, of course, so generally it is a matter of choice and preference. I don’t necessarily need the comfort of a higher strike rate but the more ready money could then be reinvested.

Overall, no regrets about these plays – there were factors in favour of both and the prices took the risk into account well enough.

Reginald Smith Brindle….

I copy and paste this in it’s entirety from the Guardian Obituary pages – RSB has written some very interesting material for guitar and I have just started working on it as part of my own practice routine, specifically ‘Guitar Cosmos’.

Reginald Smith Brindle
British composer, best known for his guitar works
Guy Rickards, guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 29 October 2003 02.40 GMT

“It is a matter for considerable regret,” wrote James Weir in Contemporary Composers (1990), “that more people know Reginald Smith Brindle as a teacher and critic than as a composer in his own right.” Yet it is his compositions that will in time be seen as Smith Brindle’s primary legacy.
Smith Brindle, who has died aged 86, came relatively late to composing, having initially taken up the guitar – well enough to win a Melody Maker prize in the 1930s – and then found his way into jazz. Parental pressure led him to study as an architect in order to earn a living, acquiring intermediate RIBA qualifications. An organ recital in Chester Cathedral in 1937 revealed to him his true destiny as a composer.

The outbreak of war put a break on his ambitions, but during its latter stages, serving with the Royal Engineers, mainly in North Africa and Italy, he began to compose for the instrument he knew best, the guitar (he was also an able player of the piano, clarinet and saxophone). A stream of nearly 40 short guitar pieces poured from his pen between 1944 and 1952 – 10 of these in 1948 – a body of work unmatched in quality by any other British composer.

In 1949 he returned to Italy to study, first in Rome with Ildebrando Pizzetti – whom he found too outmoded – then in Florence with Luigi Dallapiccola, whose opera Il Prigioniero was a formative experience but whose teaching methods exasperated him. He became an active member of the Scuola Dodecafonica alongside Bruno Bartolozzi, Sylvano Busotti and Alvaro Company, his music consequently undergoing a radical expansion of scale and intellectual rigour with a series of major orchestral works – the Sinfonia of 1954, Variations On A Theme By Dallapiccola (1955), An Epitaph For Alban Berg (1956) and Symphonic Variations (1957).

Smith Brindle’s output of chamber and vocal music, limited in numbers but not quality, also began about this time. His output for solo guitar had reached its peak with El Polifemo de Oro (1956) – Julian Bream’s 1966 recording of which has been Smith Brindle’s often solitary toehold in the recording catalogue. He then branched out with pieces for guitar in duet with other instruments plus works for string quartet, wind quintet and a Concerto For Five Instruments And Percussion (1960).

His early vocal pieces from the time betray a debt to Dallapiccola both in word setting and instrumental layout, reaching a climax with his opera The Death Of Antigone (1969, first produced in Oxford two years later), the choral Windhover (1971) and A Mass In English (1974).

The late 1950s saw the influence of science and science fiction appear in his work, a trait sustained over the ensuing years in works such as Cosmos (1959), Homage To HG Wells (1960), Andromeda – a fine flute solo from 1966 – and the percussion works Orion M42 and Auriga (both 1967). In 1970, he relaxed the strict serialism of his musical idiom to allow for more melodic and emotional invention, a development – ahead of most of his contemporaries – for which he felt no need to apologise. His later works saw a resumption of composition for guitar – including five sonatas – and organ, many of the latter with evocative Latin titles. The zenith of this final phase was reached in his Second Symphony, Veni Creator (1989), but he kept working, even helping to found the Chameleon Group of Composers, based in Croydon, in 1995. He ceased composition in 1999.

As a writer, he made a great impression in the heady avant-garde days of the 1960s and 1970s with a series of books for Oxford University Press: Serial Composition (1966), Contemporary Percussion (1970) and The New Music (1975), in which he proved an eloquent advocate for the more advanced trends in 20th-century music. A fourth book, Musical Composition, followed in 1986.

He was a distinguished teacher, highly regarded by his students. He lectured for 10 years from 1957 at University College of North Wales, Bangor (where he had studied from 1946 to 1949), until he was made a professor. From 1970 he was at the University of Surrey, retiring in 1981.

While in Italy during the war, Smith Brindle met Giulia Borsi, whom he married in Britain in April 1947. She survives him, as do their son and three daughters.

Reginald Smith Brindle, composer and teacher, born January 5 1917; died September 9 2003

Ascot musings….

Having invested time and money in a race, it’s worth looking again after the event to see what can be learnt.  Could Serabad’s win have been predicted?  I don’t see that I would have backed him even with hindsight.  I had him marked down on recent form, overall form and trainer/jockey, with a resulting value price of 9/1.  It would have taken considerable changes in the scoring to bring him nearer the 2/1 of Lough Derg.  There was a factor which I didn’t account for though, the weight differential.  Lough had beaten Serabad twice in recent runs at this course, resulting in a 10lb change in relative weights in Serabad’s favour.  That is something I didn’t calculate, partly because it apparently takes a lot to reverse the positions of horses who have previously met.  I think I might have been more attentive to this weight differential but still not to the extent that it would make a difference to any bet.  The fact that Serabad only managed to win by a head suggests I was right, though only just!

Serabad was 16s at the early prices against 9s value price and I followed the principle of the shorter value price which is a value offer being the bet.  16s is not so much greater than 9s to be standout value – if anything it confirms my doubts.  It sometimes helps to respect the general outline of bookie’s prices as a reality check, though not too much or we’d get nothing done!  As prices get longer there is less leeway for error.  I have also adopted Mark Cramer’s principle of only considering true priced runners of 6/1 or shorter, whatever the apparent value.  This ensures a reasonable strike rate.

Chief Yeoman was about 3 lengths back to finish 5th, “held up towards rear, headway approaching 2 out, ridden to chase leaders before last, no extra flat touched 10/1 “.

Anyway, four days before the next race – like crossing a barren desert after all the excitement, hope I don’t die of boredom before Thursday.

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